Opinion: Steven Miles’ future is only one of the elephants in Labor’s party room

The future of Steven Miles as Opposition Leader is one of two very large elephants in Queensland Labor’s party room that nobody wants to talk about, writes Paul Williams. VOTE IN OUR POLL

Opposition Leader Steven Miles in Parliament on Monday. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Queensland state Labor has a pair of very large elephants in its party room that nobody wants to talk about.

One is the future of Opposition Leader Steven Miles. The other – a potentially more petulant pachyderm – is the very clumsy process of electing a Queensland Labor leader.

The first is especially problematic: How do you remove a leader who lost his last election but who, in the eyes of many, won the campaign and who is, at least for now, enjoying the support of most colleagues and many voters?

When Steven Miles succeeded Annastacia Palaszczuk in late 2023, the most common refrain I heard was, “Why Miles? He’s hopeless.” But Miles, the PhD-trained pollie, allowed a nervous giggle to mask a sharp intellect and personable character.

In short, Miles was a lot savvier than most critics were willing to admit, and that was reflected in the almost flawless campaign he ran last October.

Having lost 11 “preferred premier” polls in a row, Miles finished the campaign ahead of Crisafulli, 45 points to 42. Yes, Crisafulli’s ham-fisted handling of the abortion debate clearly helped Miles – as did a host of gym pics on social media – but Miles’s political adroitness was, and is, undeniable.

The trouble is that leadership success is both fleeting and contextual. Miles is now merely an opposition leader – irrelevant to most voters – and a near-invisible one at that. Labor’s primary vote has fallen since October, with the LNP’s after-preference lead blowing out to 56 per cent to Labor’s 44.

Critically, the Australian Electoral Study tells us just 15 per cent of Australians use leadership as their primary factor when deciding their vote. But we also know that number is more than half of the 25 per cent of Australians who have no party loyalty and, therefore, a crucial demographic deciding who wins and who loses by margins (in most elections) of just a few percentage points.

In short, leadership matters and, put bluntly, in politics, like show business, you’re only as good as your last act. So while Miles is holding the Opposition together today, at some point the Labor caucus must address an increasingly noisy elephant: how do they manage a leadership transition if – or when – Miles again falls behind Crisafulli as preferred premier?

Once a leader loses an election (a very public rejection by millions of voters) its nigh on impossible for that leader to ever win government. Father of the LNP Lawrence Springborg tried and failed three times, and Country Party leader Frank Nicklin lost five elections between 1941 and 1957 before becoming premier.

But that was long before television let alone the internet. In an age of image-based politics fuelled by social media, voters have little patience for failed leaders who are no longer considered recyclable. TikTok favours the fresh and the novel and shuns yesterday’s fad.

We would have to go back to Liberal premier Robert Philp, who lost government in 1903, then served as opposition leader before coming back as premier in 1908 – but at the Governor’s request and via popular election. Would voters tolerate that today? Almost certainly not.

And that brings us to how Labor elects its leaders. Queensland changed its leadership election rules in 2013 to mirror Kevin Rudd’s own leadership election reforms. But, in Queensland, the task is even more cumbersome: to remove an unpopular leader, more than 50 per cent of Labor MPs must have no confidence in the leader, with the leadership then declared vacant. If only one candidate nominates, it’s a done deal.

But if more than one candidate nominates, a protracted postal ballot must occur, with MPs, grassroots members and trade union delegates each receiving a third of the vote. It’s that prospect of an ugly and drawn-out public brawl that saw Shannon Fentiman withdraw her candidacy against Miles in 2023, with Miles assuming the premiership without contest.

But it’s that very lack of public transparency – where union leaders wield power based on the caucus’s factional composition – that turns off voters and sees new leaders inherit a deficit of public trust.

Labor must begin its campaign for the 2028 election now. Its response to a rather amateurish LNP government so far has been appalling weak. That’s why Labor state conference later this year must debate changing the leadership election process back to one managed by MPs alone.

If, or when, it becomes clear Miles in unelectable, Labor’s leadership must change quickly, cleanly and in broad daylight.

Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University