Opinion: Real threat to Palaszczuk’s reign

A renegade union and a sluggish economy are the least of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s worries 11 months out from the state election, writes Peter Gleeson.

PREMIER Annastacia Palaszczuk’s reputation and legacy among the titans of the Labor movement is very much at stake.

The so-called “accidental’’ premier has proved herself to be among the best retail politicians ever seen in Queensland.

But her folksy charm and warmth – particularly with women – will not save her, unless she gets tough in coming months.

If Ms Palaszczuk was to win the next Queensland election – and the odds are stacked against her 11 months out – she would rightly go down in Labor history as the most successful female politician of her generation.

However, a combination of the antics of the Left of her party, a renegade union and a sluggish economy are conspiring to make winning on October 31, 2020, seemingly mission impossible.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Treasurer Jackie Trad. Picture: AAP Image/Glenn Hunt

The Left, the unions and the poor state of the economy are inextricable – wacky Left ideology such as running dead on the coal industry has not only hurt Labor at the ballot box, it is having a fiscal impact. Business confidence is weak.

Queensland has the highest unemployment rate in the country, even with a corpulent public service that has grown by 35,000 since 2015.

Bully-boy union tactics, especially from the CFMEU, has seen an explosion in construction costs, which means developers either steer clear of Queensland, or the cost of building houses and units is passed on to the consumer.

The real damage to Labor has come from integrity scandals that have forced Deputy Premier Jackie Trad into embarrassing apologies and the resignation of Ms Palaszczuk’s chief of staff David Barbagallo. Their foolish actions have been well documented.

Trad, in particular, has shown poor judgment on an undeclared house purchase, a trip to Whistler courtesy of a Labor mate and now playing a role in the appointment of a principal within her electorate.

Internal Labor polling shows Trad’s personal brand in the regions is toxic. She has become an albatross around the neck of the Premier. The Opposition’s “dodgy Jackie’’ moniker has resonated.

Now, the Premier faces her toughest challenge with the possibility that the CFMEU may withdraw support for Labor leading into the next election because it is unhappy with the progress of an Enterprise Bargaining Agreement at Cross River Rail.

The CFMEU withdrew support for former Labor premier Anna Bligh in 2012 and she suffered the worst defeat by a Labor leader in history, reducing the ALP ranks to just eight MPs.

There’s little chance of that happening again, even if the CFMEU did withdraw its support, but the test for Ms Palaszczuk is clear.

Will she be persuaded by the likes of CFMEU boss Michael Ravbar and cave into his outlandish demands, or will she stand firm, knowing the Government’s offer is fair and equitable?

The CFMEU was spoilt when it did the EBA at Queen’s Wharf.

Star Entertainment Group, the proponent, agreed to generous and lucrative industrial agreements with the CFMEU because it just wants to get the project finished on time.

Star knows the CFMEU’s reputation for industrial unlawfulness and the last thing it needs is a site that is constantly being shut down.

After all, this is a $3 billion development – a transformational project that forms the centrepiece of Star’s ongoing commitment to Queensland.

The EBA effectively means carpenters who work six hours overtime a week – which is expected – will earn $288,000 a year, right up there with the salary of a Cabinet minister.

The Government’s deal at Cross River Rail is not as prosperous, but in real terms, it’s still pretty good coin for the CFMEU workers.

For example, a lollipop sign operator, those who direct traffic on the site, will be able to earn up to $188,000 a year. But for Ravbar and his boys, it’s not enough.

If Ms Palaszczuk does stare down the CFMEU and risk all-out war, she will win plenty of plaudits from hard-working Queenslanders struggling to make ends meet on $80,000 a year.

The CFMEU is an opportunistic operation that will jump into bed with anybody if it pleases them. They have cosied up to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson to have new federal industrial laws vetoed in the Senate.

There is a perception, some say misguided, that Ms Palaszczuk lacks certainty and decisiveness on big calls.

But there is a compelling argument that she hasn’t gone far enough in sanctioning Cabinet members from the Left. She has had ample reasons to banish Mangocube Mark Bailey, union-backer Mick de Brenni and Trad from Cabinet.

On securing the Olympics, the Premier has strode the international stage with aplomb. On infrastructure, she has stood beside Prime Minister Scott Morrison to only recently announce a raft of new projects.

The bipartisanship with Morrison on infrastructure is a key victory and it augurs well for a strong Commonwealth-State relationship on securing the Olympics.

Winning the Olympic bid is a distinct possibility. The International Olympic Committee like what they’ve seen thus far.

It would be a big vote winner for the Premier. But her inability to control wayward left ministers and her reticence to take on the unions will not play out well with Queensland voters.

If she stands up to the unions and starts staring down the Left of her party, she will make the October 31 poll next year competitive.

But she has a big mountain to climb. Right now, Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington is well and truly in the driver’s seat.