Opinion: Qld, Tasmania continue to support federal Coalition

Queensland remained stubbornly loyal to Scott Morrison, but this time it wasn’t the full story, writes Paul Williams.

Outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison might as well ask once again, “How good is Queensland?”

After all, while his Coalition government was decimated in most states and territories, regional Queensland (and Brisbane’s outer suburbs) continued to be loyal to the Liberal National brand.

Only regional Tasmania shaped up as a similar standard bearer for a Morrison government rejected everywhere else.

Most of Australia on Saturday posted a warning – written in huge green and teal-coloured letters – that the Morrison brand of conservatism is not relevant in a post-Covid-19 Australia. Instead, in downtown Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and elsewhere, middle (and cashed-up) Australians want action on climate change, on integrity and on gender and wage equality.

Not unexpectedly, the 2022 federal election again reminds us that Queensland is different. We don’t follow the national trend; we dance (and vote) to the beat of our own drum.

But it also highlighted how there is no single Queensland, and that the regions north of Brisbane and west of Ipswich (and even in outer eastern Brisbane) still believe in the blokey Morrison despite a burgeoning cost-of-living crisis.

There are, then, two Australias: the inner and middle suburbs of the capital cities Australia who demand progressive “post-material” policies; and an outer suburban, regional and rural Australia still committed to a cultural conservatism.

If the Liberals under likely new leader Peter Dutton cannot reconcile these two constituencies, the Coalition may become irrelevant for millions of Australians, and out of office for years to come.

Yet last Saturday also offered a warning to a Labor Party that could be accused of coasting into office – under the radar with a small policy target – on the strength of anti-Morrison sentiment.

If Labor cannot address the loss of its own inner-city base to the Greens and “Teals”, and the loss of its outer suburban and regional bases to the conservatives, Labor too risks irrelevancy within a generation.

Make no mistake, Australia’s electoral rules have just been rewritten.