Opinion: LNP’s path to victory is more difficult than you might think

Opinion: The Opposition faces challenges the government doesn’t, making the campaign a handicap race stacked in Labor’s favour, writes Graham Young.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli on the last day of Parliament before the election on Thursday. Picture: Tertius Pickard/NCA NewsWire

Common wisdom says David Crisafulli will be the next premier of Queensland. But this is far from an unlosable election for the LNP.

The Opposition faces challenges the government doesn’t, making the campaign a handicap race stacked in Labor’s favour.

Firstly, the LNP may need more than 53 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to form majority government, as five seats held by the Katters and Independents force the Opposition further up the electoral pendulum to win safer ALP seats to secure a majority.

This creates a higher-than-usual chance of a minority government.

Secondly, an effective gerrymander in campaign financing means unions and left-leaning non-government organisations will enable the ALP campaign to legally outspend the LNP by as much as $10 million.

The Electoral Act limits the amount of money that political parties and others can spend per election, and limits what political parties can receive in donations. 

The rort is found in a third category of “registered third parties”, which are limited in what they can spend, but not in the size of donations.

There are currently 29 of these and 16 are unions, plus three hard-left NGOs (including GetUp), who together have the potential to spend $18,775,583 campaigning effectively for Labor.

Dumped One Nation Member for Mirani Stephen Andrew has joined Katter’s Australian Party, taking its number of MPs to four.

There are four Centre and Right NGOs registered, of which mine is one, and four industry groups. Who knows which direction these will pull in, but they are each limited to election expenditure of $1,043,088.

The LNP by comparison can only spend $8,924,660, the same as the ALP.

Not only will the LNP be outspent, but it must also overcome a stark electoral arithmetic to reach a majority. The LNP holds 34 seats and needs 47 to win in its own right, a gain of 13.

The ask could be higher courtesy of Ipswich West, which is traditionally Labor, but was won in a by-election in March and where the current LNP member, Darren Zanow is not recontesting due to ill health.

The five seats held by the Katters and the Noosa Independent deprive the LNP of seats it would normally hold, and some Labor seats could hold out against a uniform swing.

Cairns looks rocky on the bookies’ odds, and Labor is pouring resources into Aspley to defend up-and-comer Bart Mellish.

Keppel, the 13th most marginal Labor seat on the electoral pendulum becomes the change of government seat under a uniform swing. But to win Keppel, the LNP requires a swing of 5.6 per cent.

Add that to the 46.8 per cent of the vote the LNP won at the last election, and that means the LNP would need 52.4 per cent of the vote to get to a bare majority under a uniform swing.

If the LNP is required to win further up the pendulum, and Mansfield becomes the change-of-government seat, it requires 53.4 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote. 

Premier Steven Miles with daughter Bridie at this year’s Ekka

While most polls this year put the LNP on approximately 54 to 57 per cent, margins can tighten during a campaign.

And Premier Steven Miles is counterattacking.

With cost of living the major election issue, the government has splashed $2.3 billion giving every household $1000 off its electricity bill. Labor has slashed public transport fees to 50c. Petrol bills are high, so they’ve signalled concern by proposing to cap price rises and build service stations.

Miles is all over social media doing his daggy dad act, co-starring with his daughter, making sandwiches, checking the petrol pump, and making appropriately “in touch” and empathetic comments about prices.

Will voters see this as the desperate acts of a defeated government, or will it knock the top off the polling?

Then there are the inevitable negative personal attacks on Crisafulli. He appears to have made a risky decision to play company doctor after he lost his Townsville seat in 2015 unsuccessfully attempting to rescue a small business.

“If he can’t run a business, how could he run a state?” might be a potent attack line.

A change of government is by no means certain, especially in a critical election campaign where the government has stacked the campaign financing odds in its favour.

Graham Young is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress