Opinion: Future plans not past actions win elections
To win majority government, Labor must recognise that voters vote for jobs, health and education through a clear plan for the future – even in the shadow of a global pandemic, writes Cameron Milner.
Opinion
Don't miss out on the headlines from Opinion. Followed categories will be added to My News.
“MAAATE, we’ve got this one locked in like the Queensland border” has become as frequently said in 1 William St, Brisbane, as “How’s those Broncos?” in the wider community.
The level of electoral complacency and hubris is palpable in Labor circles. Supporters and MPs buoyed by the Premier’s strong leadership on COVID-19 see the state election on October 31 as a mere formality to achieve a third term and four more years in office.
As a lifelong Labor member, I hope we win. As a lifelong participant and active observer of Queensland politics, this election is so far from won for Labor. Our state is as volatile electorally now as it was pre-COVID-19. As volatile as when premier Campbell Newman crushed a tired and incompetent Bligh government in a landslide and lost just three years later to a hardworking, straight-talking and empathetic Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Palaszczuk Government accused of ‘hubris and complacency’ by former Labor strategist
Voters will on October 31 do as they have always done – vote for a party to govern for the next term to deliver jobs, health and education. Their vote will be in the context of increasing angst about the future of the economy – now in a formal recession as a consequence of COVID-19 crystallising what was already a sluggish environment.
Leading through a crisis hasn’t always delivered electorally. Labor’s James Scullin lost at the election after the Great Depression, Winston Churchill the general election two months after the end of World War II in Europe. In 2010, Labor lost a first-term majority at the election after “saving us” from the GFC. Why did they lose after having led through the crisis? Because all wanted to be voted in for past actions rather than the promise and plan of future actions. All rested on their laurels while voters had moved on to the future.
Many who subscribe to the “COVID in the bag” approach point to the lack of airplay for Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington. But every day Labor talks just COVID is another day less they get to put their plans for the future to the people of Queensland.
Labor needs to lose just two seats to lose their majority, while the LNP need to secure nine seats to govern in their own right. Labor is already under threat in tightly held regional marginals such as Thuringowa, Townsville and Mundingburra. Add to that Keppel and Barron River, even before you sweep through Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands. You have to ask how popular border closures have been to the electors in hyper-marginal Gaven on the Gold Coast given how reliant the local economy is on tourism.
The LNP’s decision to try to unseat a hard-Left leader in Jackie Trad and vote in a hard-Left Greens’ member on preferences adds to Labor’s challenges to achieve a majority in their own right.
The gulf of uncertainty delivered by a minority government in our economic predicament is unthinkable. Yet current electoral numbers point to a Labor minority cobbled together with either the Greens and Labor, or as some are angling for a Labor/Green/KAP conglomerate, or alternatively an LNP propped up by One Nation.
It’s a recipe for an economic disaster. Just as Queensland needs strong leadership to work through the economic crisis wrought by COVID-19, we need a majority government focused solely on delivering jobs and growth.
The Courier-Mail editorial of August 18 nailed the electoral need for both sides to outline a full plan for the next term of office. That demand is also made by the electors of Queensland. Voters are looking for a plan as well as a dose of hope. They want to vote for the future, not just give a tick for keeping community transmission at zero for 14 days. People want to know the economic recovery is as well planned and managed as the current COVID-19 health response. The government has worked hard to protect Queenslanders from COVID-19 – they need to show how they will work equally hard to protect our economy and grow jobs.
The last X-factor for Labor is the party leadership. It’s foremost the leadership of Annastacia Palaszczuk – underestimated to his detriment by Campbell Newman and despite Deb Frecklington staring down bully boys in the party, clearly the preferred premier by a winning margin over her rival.
The Health Minister and now Deputy Premier Steven Miles has brought calm and clear health leadership to the fore, complementing the strong, decisive leadership of Premier Palaszczuk. The level of cohesion across the Labor government with the absence of Jackie Trad is grounds for renewed hope of a united and focused campaign and a third-term Labor government ahead.
Yet as the Premier has said of COVID-19 that only complacency will see us lose the war on COVID-19, the same can be said of the hubris and complacency that says Labor has it “locked in”.
To win a majority, Labor must recognise that voters vote for jobs, health and education through a clear plan for the future – even in the shadow of a global pandemic, a Great Depression or indeed a world war.
Cameron Milner is the former Queensland Labor state secretary
