Opinion: Dunkley’s a draw, but Dutton may need to watch his back

It’s only a matter of time before Peter Dutton faces a challenge from this increasingly impressive MP, writes Paul Williams.

The major parties were keen for a clear message from Saturday’s by-election in the mortgage-belt seat of Dunkley in outer Melbourne.

Labor desperately needed to hold on to Dunkley, and it did.

With just 78 MPs in the House, a loss of just three at the next election will see Labor lose its majority.

And with Dunkley formerly sitting on a 6.3 per cent margin, this one-time Liberal bastion could easily have returned to the Coalition.

And that would have pressured Anthony Albanese on everything from cost of living to asylum seekers.

But the Liberals did not need to win Dunkley. They just needed a decent swing.

If Labor had attained a swing, Liberal leader Peter Dutton – after losing Aston and gaining just 2.7 per cent in 2023 – would have finally been declared unelectable.

But no clear message came. By Sunday morning, it was evident both the Liberals and Labor had improved their primary vote (up 6.8 and 0.8 per cent respectively), with the after-preference swing against the Albanese Government at just 3.7 per cent, within the usual 4 per cent range we expect at by-elections.

Most would rate Dunkley a draw. The modest but not tiny swing means Albo and Dutton are each safe in his job, for now.

But the fact Labor’s primary vote increased amid the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation (while the Greens’ vote plummeted) – and despite anti-Labor forces demanding voters make this by-election a referendum on Albanese personally – Dunkley might be rated a narrow win for Labor.

And that offers lessons for the next federal election, too.

First, the Liberals are still on track for defeat at an election that must be held no more than 14 months from now.

Even if the Dunkley swing were repeated uniformly across Australia the Coalition would pick up just 10 seats, or 11 short of a majority.

Second, Dunkley suggests voters approve of Labor’s economic management, including its tax cuts.

Third, it suggests an Opposition’s culture wars mean nothing around the kitchen tables in the real Australia.

The Liberals can win the next federal election, but only if the party acts decisively, and soon.

Don’t believe me? Just watch deputy leader Sussan Ley’s increasingly impressive performances during Question Time, and wonder how long it will be before she challenges Dutton.

Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University