Opinion: Campbell Newman says support for One Nation being underestimated
FORMER premier Campbell Newman says the level of support for Pauline Hanson is being underestimated because people simply won’t admit that they will vote One Nation.
Opinion
Don't miss out on the headlines from Opinion. Followed categories will be added to My News.
ALL of a sudden there is a new debate haunting the chattering classes: Now that Pauline Hanson has drawn the sword, which party will she wound the deepest? Labor or LNP?
The early signs show Labor is facing a crushing defeat but the LNP will unlikely be able to govern without the support of One Nation.
So says businessman Campbell Newman, the former premier.
“My very clear reading of it is (that) the only way the LNP will be in government is through the support of One Nation.
“I just don’t know how the LNP can win an election without some kind of alliance.”
He added: “I’d be very disappointed if Labor won the next election.
“I don’t want this do-nothing Labor Government continuing in office. I want them gone. They have been a terrible experiment.
“I want an LNP government ideally, but I don’t see how that is going to happen.
“There is this third force that has now entered the arena and there is no sign One Nation’s momentum is abating.”
Newman cautioned, however, that Hanson had entered “dangerous territory”. She was “on a precipice” and one slip of the tongue may see her tumble into a political abyss from which there is no return.
Newman also said it was a myth that Labor has a number of supporters who don’t change their votes despite the political machinations of the day.
And, yes, there is a Trump factor and the pollsters have not been able to accurately measure the support Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is getting in Australia.
“The pollsters are not able to pick up the support she is getting,” Newman said. “They underestimated the level of support for Trump and they are underestimating the level of support for Pauline Hanson.
“People will tell a pollster one thing, but their voting intention may be something different.
“Up until now there are a lot of people who won’t admit to a pollster that they will support Pauline Hanson.
“Their level of support may be much higher.”
The ALP had much to lose.
He said: “The Labor Party can put a brave face on it but there are many seats now held by the party that One Nation is likely to pick up.
“There is a whole swag of seats in north Queensland.”
Newman said seats likely to be lost by Labor included Townsville, (held by Scott Stewart) Mundingburra, (Coralee O’Rourke) and Thuringowa (held by Aaron Harper).
On Brisbane’s northern fringe the ALP will struggle to hold Pumicestone (Rick Williams), Morayfield (Mark Ryan) and Kallangur (Shane King) and maybe even lose Pine Rivers (Nikki Boyd).
One Nation even has a chance at winning Labor seats Maryborough (Bruce Saunders) and Ipswich West (James Madden) and the LNP seat of Burdekin (Dale Last).
Newman said Labor was also “desperately worried” about retaining Rockhampton (Bill Byrne) and Keppel (Brittany Lauga).
He said Byrne was not very popular in Rockhampton.
Newman added: “People tend to think voters in these seats are rusted-on Labor. But they are not rusted-on Labor.
“They are seats where the people really dislike those they see as wealthy or privileged.
“So they don’t warm to your Malcolm Turnbulls et cetera.”
He said these voters usually “park their votes” with Labor.
“The trouble for the Labor Party (comes) when Pauline Hanson talks about certain issues it has great resonance with them, so they are willing to switch to One Nation in those seats. That’s the phenomenon that is going on there.”
He said political leaders now had the vexing task of appealing to four very different Queenslands.
“There is inner-city Brisbane with professionals and the New Left, if I can call them that. It’s hard to work out what is going on there.
“Then there is middle to outer Brisbane. Then there is rural and regional Queensland that is LNP heartland. Next there are the regional coastal cities.”
Each “Queensland” had different aspirations.
Newman said there were great cultural divides opening in Australia.
“There is a Grand Canyon of a chasm in Australia between those who live in, say, inner-city Melbourne and the people of Townsville; or the people of inner-city Brisbane and the people of Townsville. They may as well be living in different countries.
“The aspirations, the values, the day-to-day considerations are polls apart. It’s fascinating. It’s also a great worry, you know. That’s the challenge for Premier Palaszczuk or anyone who wants to lead Queensland.
“Attempting to reconcile those forces is difficult. It is hard to be a Queensland premier for that reason. The politics is so different.”
Overtime rort needs CCC investigation
AS CRAZY as it sounds I think we need another inquiry to get to the bottom of the Queensland Rail debacle.
Phillip Strachan’s report tabled in Parliament said one of the “underlying issues” that caused the timetable meltdown was “Queensland Rail preferring to operate with a 5 to 10 per cent undersupply of train crew, driven largely by a practice of providing overtime opportunities”.
Translation: The system was being rorted to top up pay packets to crews who really didn’t deserve it – and you paid.
And drivers called in on a rostered day off got a 175 per cent penalty payment. This boosted salaries by tens of thousands of dollars a year. Saturday or Sunday work attracted a penalty of 37.5 per cent, Strachan reported.
Overly generous payments such as these would bankrupt a normal business.
The Strachan Commission of Inquiry report found a 7 per cent reduction in train crew productivity between 2014 and 2016 was “due in part to more restrictive crewing rules agreed between unions and ... management”.
Is this proper? No, and it gets worse. Strachan said inefficiencies meant drivers were operating trains only for less than a third of their shifts.
It’s hard not to conclude that Queensland Rail has been run dishonestly for many years for the pecuniary aggrandisement of unionists.
Does it amount to misconduct? Perhaps not.
However, because of large sums of public moneys involved an investigation by the Crime and Corruption Commission, or, at the very least, the Auditor-General, is warranted.
Taxpayers deserve to know how their money is the spent.
I hasten to add I am not suggesting any official wrongdoing. The board and managers were not told the full story.
It may be that the ancient system is corrupt, not the individuals.
The cancellation of services on Christmas Day was a public relations disaster for the Labor brand.
Annastacia Palaszczuk and Jackie Trad tried to gloss over the damning report with the usual platitudes and sycophancy.
The Premier and her deputy are hoping it all goes away. But I’m afraid it won’t now that we learn that Treasurer Curtis Pitt over-rode the board to sanction “extraordinary” pay rises for drivers.
As one of the responsible ministers, Pitt has some explaining to do. Transport Minister Stirling Hinchliffe quit after being found guilty of incompetence in the court of public opinion.
Pitt, so far, has got off scot-free. He of all people should be aware of the fiscal impropriety of undeserved pay rises, excessive penalty rates and closed-shop hiring practices.
Someone has to ask some tough questions because this gross waste has been going on for many years.
It was scandalously allowed to continue by governments of all political persuasions.
P.S…
Teacher to sue private school
LEGAL woes continue for Brisbane Boys College, the elite private school at Toowong.
The Workers Compensation Regulator has found in favour of a Dr Anthony Chittenden, a distinguished teacher who claims he was forced out unfairly after quarrelling with headmaster Graeme McDonald.
In her decision, Allira Thompson found the school management actions in ousting Chittenden were unreasonable, or undertaken in an unreasonable manner. And after considering evidence from a psychiatrist, she agreed Chittenden’s ill health was work related.
“The personal injury arose out of your employment with BBC as the head of the middle school,” she said.
Trouble began in September 2014 when McDonald told Chittenden he would no longer be the head of the middle school.
Chittenden told me the decision cleared the way for him to sue the Presbyterian and Methodist Schools’ Association, which operates BBC, for economic loss and wrongful dismissal.
Rugby love-in
Love was in the air on Friday morning when former Wallabies Greg Martin and James O’Connor kissed and made up on Brisbane radio.
Marto, co-host of the Triple M morning show, had given O’Connor, one-time enfant terrible of the Queensland Reds, the mother of all serves as he headed off to France last year. O’Connor then hit the keyboard to return serve in no uncertain terms.
It seemed that never the twain would meet again, but with O’Connor back in town to play for glamour French outfit Toulon in this weekend’s World Tens at Suncorp, a smart Triple M producer signed him up as a guest on Marto’s show and stood back waiting for the fireworks. He’s still waiting, and so are we. If O’Connor doesn’t show more aggression on the field than he did in the studio this weekend, Toulon are in serious trouble.
Taxpayer snip
A STAGGERING $124 million has been spent on skills training for the unemployed in less than two years, Minister for Training Yvette D’Ath boasted last week.
She said 751 “projects” helped train mature-aged jobseekers and young people, Aboriginals, the disabled, and people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds.
It might be cynical to say so, but all the training in the world won’t help if there are no jobs on offer when the training is over.
Governments are good at spending our money. Look at the hare-brained scheme to provide haircuts for the homeless in Moreton Bay and Brisbane. The Palaszczuk Government gave $73,172 for 1000 haircuts. That’s $73 a clip.
Closed meeting?
A SPECIAL board of management meeting has been called by the CFMEU mining division next week to discuss the finances of the branch. I’m told the meeting in Mackay will not be open to members as it usually is.
There has been much soul-searching since I revealed lavish spending by president Stephen Smyth, who charged thousands on his union MasterCard paying for lavish Las Vegas restaurants, Whitsunday cruises and even dentist, plumbing and butcher shop bills.
The union defended the spending, saying Smyth was on official business. And it said some money had been paid back.
The lifestyles of union executives came under the spotlight when an independent auditor raised concerns. The annual report showed credit card expenses for the executives in the last financial year totalled $721,116. Auditor Jason Croston of SRJ Walker Wayland said he was unable to obtain sufficient evidence that credit card expenses had been incurred solely for business purposes.
Irritant of the week
CORY Bernardi. The grandstanding Liberal turncoat may do the conservative movement more harm than good.
He said what?
“THIS man is a parasite. He has no respect for the taxpayer any more than he has respect for the members of the Australian Workers Union he betrayed again and again.” In a defining moment, PM Malcolm Turnbull described Labor leader Bill Shorten as a “simpering sycophant”.
Twitter: @DesHougthon
Join the conversation
Rory Gibson reveals the one thing women should never do
I know we are in holiday mode, but if you don’t mind I’d like your opinion on an issue of great importance before we all clock off for the year.
Read more
Think outside box with Olympic bid
Today readers have their say on Queensland’s bid for the 2032 Olympic Games, the volcano tragedy in New Zealand and an inquiry into veterans’ suicide.
Read more