Opinion: Australians forced to choose between two dud leaders

THE hopeless disappointment versus the shifty, dodgy guy is emerging as the character battleground for the next federal election, writes Dennis Atkins.

THE hopeless disappointment versus the shifty, dodgy guy is emerging as the character battleground for the next federal election, almost certain to be held in the first third of next year.

Voters don’t embrace either national political leader. They give Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a slight edge, with a favourability rating just into positive territory.

Labor’s Bill Shorten is not liked at all, and at the moment his ratings are diving deeper and deeper into negative territory.

It’s said by both Labor and Coalition insiders that the parties’ private polling gives Turnbull better numbers than the published surveys, while Shorten’s own ratings are even worse in the polls done by the political professionals.

Turnbull has a strong lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister. He’s done nothing to kill off what is a natural incumbent’s advantage on this score, and he is also regarded as the better economic manager.

However, Turnbull is a deep disappointment throughout the electorate – even among those who have no intention of voting for the Coalition.

He was seen as a breath of fresh air after Tony Abbott was shown the door, but his star soon returned to earth.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull during Question Time on Thursday. Picture: Mick Tsikas/AAP

The failure to maintain a consistent narrative about the Government’s economic plans and achievements counts against Turnbull, as does
his gobsmacking lack of political skills.

Shorten has a different set of problems brought about because he has such a woeful record of contractions and each-way bets on everything from economic policy to his record as a leader with the Australian Workers’ Union.

Pollsters who conduct focus groups report a very hard-to-close distance between Shorten and voters, especially women.

“They just don’t like him,” one pollster said. “It’s not unusual to hear people call him things like ‘creepy’.”

This background sets up a depressingly ugly landscape on which the next big national political contest will be held.

The 2016 federal election was relatively polite, despite Labor being branded cheats and liars at the end of the campaign for what was a fairly run-of-the-mill hardball hit on Medicare.

There were no personal attacks on either Turnbull or Shorten, despite their vulnerabilities.

Turnbull’s baggage is his personal wealth and his reputation as “Mr Harbourside Mansion”, as former Abbott chief-of-staff Peta Credlin dubbed him.

There was pressure for Labor to go after Turnbull, painting him as someone who used tax havens in the Cayman Islands, but the Opposition held its hand.

The Coalition also held back on Shorten’s record as a union leader who had a record of doing deals easily described as dodgy, and his association with some of the toughest of the tough, such as the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union.

There will be no such reserve this time around. The gloves will be off.

You only have to watch and listen to Parliament – particularly Question Time – to hear ministers and senior Opposition politicians rehearse their lines.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten earlier this week. Picture: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Turnbull and Shorten might personally stay out of the insults and abuse, but there will be plenty willing to take up verbal arms.

Just this past week we have seen the way both the Coalition and Labor are locked and loaded to hit out.

When Labor frontbencher Linda Burney was caught out doctoring a transcript of an interview in which she went off script on asylum seekers, the rhetorical fists came fast and furious for Shorten.

Soon afterwards, the announcement that the expected five by-elections won’t be held for nine weeks – on July 28, the last day of the ALP’s national conference – was met with heated hollering from Labor.

It claimed the process was rigged and the Government was fighting dirty.

These five by-elections are going to be a dry run for next year’s general election, with both sides testing their lines and themes.

The Government will target Labor’s attitude on asylum seekers – especially in the Queensland seat of Longman – and Shorten’s character. The metamessage from the Coalition will be whether voters want Shorten to be prime minister.

Labor will pound the drum of “tax cuts favouring the big end of town” and “why is the Government giving the banks billions in tax relief while people can’t get a decent wage rise?”.

It will be played hard, and at the end of the day, there’ll be just one team standing.

Dennis Atkins is The Courier-Mail’s national affairs editor