Opinion: Annastacia Palaszczuk’s luck must run out eventually

Annastacia Palaszczuk has enjoyed an extended honeymoon with the electorate by remaining a small target, but sooner or later she will need to make tough decisions, writes Steven Wardill.

THIS Sunday marks four years since Campbell Newman made the ill-fated call to rush to an early election during the summer school holidays.

There was widespread expectation that the dominant Liberal Nationals would win by a handful of seats, but Newman would struggle to hold his inner Brisbane electorate of Ashgrove.

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Two crucial questions beckoned throughout that 26-day campaign.

Firstly, who would be premier if the LNP won without Newman? And secondly, who would replace Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader if she failed to win a credible number of seats?

However, early during election night on January 31 it became clear neither of these questions were relevant.

Newman was gone and so was the LNP. Palaszczuk would not just continue as Labor leader but become premier of a minority government.

Annastacia Palaszcuk celebrates Labor’s comeback in 2015.

The politicking brought on during that holiday period proved to be the final insult. Queenslanders had endured enough of the cacophony and controversies of the tumultuous LNP era and were happy to chance their arm on a benign Labor alternative.

From the day Palaszczuk was sworn in as Queensland’s 39th premier, there’s been expectation she would fail.

Throughout the first 12 months of that first term, the prospect that the Government would collapse on itself and another election would be required loomed large. Queensland’s accidental premier was just one accident away from political oblivion.

However, Palaszczuk once again defied expectation. Four years on, she continues to do so after chalking up another election victory in late 2017.

The Member for Inala is the very model of a politician who, traditionally, would not have been popular with punters. She’s a career political operative who was gifted a safe seat by her father. She’s single and doesn’t have children.

But Palaszczuk has other attributes that she has cleverly cultivated, which sets her apart from her political peers. She’s seen as authentic, measured and considerate. And she’s bolstered this image by shrewdly attaching herself to a plethora of populist causes while studiously avoiding dirtying her hands with prickly political problems.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk at Government House after winning government outright in 2017.

Palaszczuk’s formula – where she now operates more like a sovereign than a state leader – has been so convincing that she has completely turned all those past expectations around.

The accidental premier of the not-too-distant past begins 2019 with the expectation she will continue to dominate her LNP opponents.

It is not hard to see why such assumptions are common.

In Deb Frecklington, the LNP is on its fourth leader since Palaszczuk took the reins of Queensland Labor in 2012.

Frecklington’s outfit is always just a bad poll or two away from axing one leader and electing another. Australia has had five prime ministers over the same period. By May, we will more than likely have our sixth.

However, the latest expectations about Palaszczuk, the assumption that her fortress is unassailable, may yet prove as unreliable as those of the past.

Labor ended 2018 with a primary vote only fractionally better than the lowly vote it achieved at the election a year earlier.

Palaszczuk’s standing as preferred premier was 10 per cent lower than what it was at the same point of her previous term. These figures indicate there was no blossoming affection among voters for the Palaszczuk Government’s efforts during 2018, while the Premier’s personal appeal has permanently waned.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has coasted on a combination of political smarts and good luck.

Part of the reason for this may very well be the hubris that the Government demonstrated last year.

These indiscretions had all the hallmarks of an administration that had lost perspective and grown arrogant.

Renaming the Lady Cilento Hospital and stripping funding from Katter’s Australian Party were classic examples of ego trampling reason. If that trend continues during 2019, the Government’s reputation as consultative and non-combative will be trashed.

The federal election is shaping up as a game changer. Conventional wisdom dictates that Bill Shorten’s likely victory should help Palaszczuk. Shorten is sure promising a lot with big commitments towards health, education and infrastructure. However, removing the yoke of the toxic Federal Coalition will aid Frecklington, who has struggled for relevance while her Canberra colleagues engaged in civil war.

The Morrison Government’s demise would also rob Palaszczuk of the ability to blame the Commonwealth for everything that her administration can’t afford to fund.

While Shorten may be making big promises, the Queensland Government will likely have to swallow cuts to some areas of federal funding to help Labor avoid blowing the national Budget.

Meanwhile, Palaszczuk’s own Budget remains problematic.

Last month’s Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review demonstrated how heavily reliant the Palaszczuk Government is on the whims of international coal prices. In the months after June, the Government committed to $1 billion of extra spending. None of this would have been affordable if it weren’t for a $2 billion revision in royalty revenue.

Coal has repeatedly come to Palaszczuk’s rescue. The Government will be confronted with some very troublesome figures the first time that doesn’t occur. If it has to cut spending or increase taxes further, the Government’s image will take a battering.

More than anything, the Premier became one of Australia’s most successful politicians by deciding not to do things and enjoying a healthy amount of luck. But eventually tough decisions are inevitable and luck runs out. This might be the year when Palaszczuk confronts both.

Steven Wardill is The Courier-Mail’s state affairs editor