Queensland Budget 2021: Treasurer Cameron Dick needs blue skies ahead to achieve a surplus

Treasurer Cameron Dick wore a Cheshire cat grin as he proclaimed Queensland was on track for a surprise budget surplus, but a lot has to go right for that to happen, writes Jessica Marszalek.

Just six months ago, a brooding Cameron Dick was photographed in sepia tone standing at his office window, contemplating Queensland’s largest deficit in history (and his own legacy as treasurer).

He talked of difficult, uncertain times and the need for caution. After all, there was a pandemic out there.

Fast forward six months and Dick wore a Cheshire cat grin for the cameras as he proclaimed Queensland was on track for a surprise budget surplus – conveniently just in time for the next state election.

Treasurer Cameron Dick was all smiles today as he proclaimed Queensland was on track for a budget surplus. Picture: Dan Peled

Despite the continuing pandemic and the correlating risk to budget bottomlines, he was now so buoyed by Queenslanders’ response to Covid he wouldn’t conceive of a scenario in which his razor-thin surplus may be shaved to nought.

The budget makes several assumptions, including that there will be no virus outbreak, domestic borders will remain open and that international borders will stay closed into mid-2022.

But what happens if there is an outbreak?

“Heaven forbid that there is,” was Dick’s answer.

But if there was, Queenslanders were “battle-hardened” and “ready to rock” and would lock down until the danger passed, he said.

That’s some kind of fiscal planning!

Cameron Dick wouldn’t conceive of a scenario in which his razor-thin surplus may be shaved to nought. Picture: Dan Peled

But, really, many things need to go right for Dick to grasp his prize.

Covid needs to remain at bay, despite Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s concern that there’s been no proper, national campaign to convince enough of the vaccine-hesitant to get their shots so we can finally open the international borders at some point without scores dying.

Queensland has to experience a phenomenal period of jobs growth, hitting full employment by 2024-25 – a feat not achieved since 2009, but one now apparently possible just years after the onset of a global pandemic.

The public service wages bill will have to keep to budget forecasts – even though it has constantly blown out under this government.

We even have to dodge any significant flooding, with budget papers stating “average seasonal rainfall is assumed for the 2021 and 2022 seasons”.

Despite his love of sepia tones, Dick certainly needs blue skies ahead.