Inala and Ipswich West by-elections have potential to cause damage to Labor and LNP leaders

Political operatives in Labor and the LNP are playing down the importance of the two looming by-elections, but in reality the results could seriously wound a party leader, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.

Political operatives in Labor and the LNP are playing down the importance of the two looming by-elections, but in reality the result could seriously wound a party leader.

It’s the first battle between Premier Steven Miles and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli and whoever emerges best from the March 16 by-elections in Inala and Ipswich West will take priceless momentum into the October general election.

Labor says a swing against it during a by-election would be usual, while the opposition notes both seats sit within Labor heartland fortress.

For Mr Miles, a swing of more than 6 per cent against the government would raise significant alarm bells at One William Street.

A swing of 6 per cent is about the one the LNP needs across the state in October to win 14 seats and govern in majority.

A swing of more than 6 per cent against the government would raise significant alarm bells for Premier Steven Miles – Photo Steve Pohlner

It’s a tall order, but if it happens in Labor’s heartland on March 16 those within the LNP will rest easy knowing their political strategy is working.

Equally, failure to make a significant dent in Labor’s vote will prompt questions about why the health, crime and housing “crises” the LNP has been banging on about for two years isn’t cutting deep enough.

These two by-elections won’t affect who holds power, but it will indicate who has the strongest grip on it.

The first hint of the political bloodbath awaiting Campbell Newman and the LNP at the 2015 election occurred 343 days earlier when Redcliffe voters hit the polls to emphatically reject his record deliver a 16 per cent swing to Yvette D’Ath.

Barely five months later Stafford voters took their chance to deliver a second beating of the government, with a shocking 18.6 per cent swing against it.

To put that significance in perspective, an 18.6 per cent swing against Labor across the state in October would leave it with just four of 52 seats.

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli is playing down LNP hopes. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen/Courier Mail

The LNP’s selection of Trang Yen in Inala lays the base for a brilliant political contest.

It’s reminiscent of Dai Lee in the federal electorate of Fowler, where voters in the outer southwest Sydney seat backed a multicultural local over Labor blow-in Kristina Keneally.

In Inala, Labor’s Margie Nightingale is no blow in, but discontent remains among branch members about her endorsement and Ms Yen better reflects the multiculturalism of the outer Brisbane electorate.

It should help the LNP shave more off Labor’s vote and anything less will raise major concerns among opposition MPs desperate to win in October and avoid an exhausting 13 years in the political wilderness.