In the past few weeks Labor folk have begun daring to dream they might have turned the corner

Just before Christmas Labor was in all sorts of trouble but things have turned around for the party and there might be good reason for the uptick in optimism.

There’s a measurement of political sentiment available only to journalists called the “availability index”.

This metric, my own humble contribution to political science, posits a direct relationship between how a politician or official thinks they are travelling and their willingness to answer the phone.

But while it applies only to the truthful – sociopaths will always tell you anything – the theory is that when things are going down the pan, rather than lie to you, a source will just start letting your calls go through to voicemail.

It won’t surprise you to know that just before Christmas, Labor – on the availability index – was in all sorts of trouble, with a superabundance of “I’m just at a function” and “sorry we keep missing each other”.

But lately things have turned around, and people I haven’t spoken to in months are suddenly returning calls with the reliability of real estate agents.

The movement towards Labor in Sunday’s RedBridge-Accent tracking poll suggests there might be good reason for this uptick in optimism.

There has been an uptick in optimism for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election chances. Picture: Jeremy Piper

It should be acknowledged, however, that for a first-term government with a tiny majority, things are still grim.

One respectable pollster – Resolve – has its primary down at 25 per cent.

Even if this turns out to be wide of the mark nationally, it’s probably close to where things are in Victoria, and if that does not improve then Peter Dutton will pick up a swag of seats here.

But even so, there is no doubt that in the past few weeks Labor folk have begun daring to dream they might have turned the corner, saying the mood on the doorstep is less hostile.

What is behind the change?

Part of it is a hope that what with the interest rate cut and improvement in the economy, things are looking up all over.

This thinking has it that while 2024 was a pretty grim year for the country and, therefore, the Labor Party, in 2025 the long, long ages of dull despair are turning into thin air and the government is benefiting.

You can see this in the six-point jump in the past fortnight in the percentage of people who think the country is headed in the right direction.

According to some Labor figures, if it weren’t for the fact that every time they turn on the TV, Donald Trump is insulting an ally or upending some longstanding international convention, people would feel even more optimistic.

“Trump is creating uncertainty. Without him the mood would be improving much more quickly,” is how one senior figure put it.

Trump isn’t all bad for Labor, however, he added, because fairly or unfairly his actions frame the way a lot of Australians view anything the Opposition Leader says.

It would be wrong to say there has been a 180-degree turn in the mood of the focus groups. But with just weeks to go until the election, voters are at least starting to think about making a choice, which is good news for Labor because it was looking as though the election was “sleepwalking into a referendum on us”.

There’s another reason why things might be turning around for Labor: its negative ads on Dutton are working.

For a negative ad to work, three things need to fall into place.

Labor’s negative ads on Peter Dutton are working. Picture: Martin Ollman

The first is that it must reinforce an existing prejudice or plant a seed of doubt.

That must seem obvious, but you’d be surprised how often parties spend money on ads that don’t shift opinion.

The second requirement is people actually have to see your ad.

Again, seems obvious, but in this fragmented age when people don’t all watch free-to-air TV – or any TV – getting their attention is much harder.

Thirdly, for an ad to really cut through, it helps to have first mover advantage.

If your opponent has planted seeds of doubt about you, it’s harder to get people to listen to your lines on the other guy.

Right now, not only is Labor bombarding every media it can buy space on – Meta, Foxtel, YouTube, Google – but it’s working.

Both sides say not only are its ads on Dutton effective but people are starting to say they have seen them before.

And because for whatever inexplicable reason the Liberals decided not to run a campaign introducing Dutton to Australia, they are doing the work of defining him in the minds of a bunch of people in marginal seats.

Inexplicably, Labor is also outspending its opponent.

If the election is a referendum on the past three years, then Dutton will win but at the moment Labor is busily turning it into a referendum on him.

Originally published as In the past few weeks Labor folk have begun daring to dream they might have turned the corner