Greens will hold Labor to ransom on Adani

Bill Shorten and Labor are facing a serious, political problem if they win the election on Saturday, and the Greens know it, writes Renee Viellaris.

BILL Shorten and Labor are facing a serious, political problem if they win the election on Saturday, and the Greens know it.

The polls suggest Shorten is on track to become Australia’s 31st prime minister, but he will not be able to win control of the Senate, raising questions about how Labor will be able to pass its big spending, high taxing agenda.

There are 76 senators and a government must secure 39 senators to control the Upper House and push through legislation.

Currently, the Coalition has 31 senators, Labor has 26 and the crossbench has 19, including the vacancy left by the former Liberal Democratic Party’s David Leyonhjelm.

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Two things are almost certain – it is unlikely the Coalition will increase its numbers in the Senate this election and Labor winning a further 13 Senate spots is extremely doubtful.

To put that in context, of Labor’s 26 senators, only 12 are rolled over, which means they will continue until their terms expire in 2022. All senators, whether they win or lose, stay in their jobs until the end of June.

So to control the Senate, Labor will need to win a further 27 senators at this election. That means it needs to snap up four Senate spots out of six in each state, one from the ACT and the Northern Territory, plus one more.

Greens leader Richard Di Natale shakes hands with Opposition Leader Bill Shorten at the ABC Friends’ leaders forum in Melbourne on Saturday. Picture: AAP/Lukas Coch

Labor will need to win 66.6 per cent of the Senate vote in each state after preferences.

The Greens currently have nine senators, and it would provide the biggest and easiest bloc for Labor to horse trade with.

However, there are legitimate questions over whether Queensland Greens Larissa Waters will win her spot or even South Australia’s Sarah Hanson-Young.

Centre Alliance senators Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff have already raised concerns about Labor’s plan to crack down on franking credits. The reform, plus its overhaul of negative gearing, will save the budget $154 billion over a decade.

Senator Griff recently told The Advertiser he did not believe all those affected were high-income earners.

“Retirees generally have little ability to generate any lost income – all they can do is cut their living costs, which could have adverse effects,” he said.

“There are several unintended consequences that need to be fully addressed. For example, it may lead to an increased dependence on the Age Pension and may negatively affect the value of Australian shares and investment in Australian companies.

“We are happy to sit down with whomever forms government to look at options for very high income individuals – but not to remove a benefit that will also negatively impact retirees on modest incomes,” he said.

It is very unlikely Labor will be able to push through its agenda using Australian Conservatives’ Cory Bernardi, One Nation’s Pauline Hanson or United Australia Party’s Brian Burston.

Larissa Waters.

Sarah Hanson-Young.

It puts the Greens in an enviable position and, just like last time Labor was in power, the Greens will extract everything they can to pursue their own agenda.

And that will primarily be on climate change.

Greens leader Richard Di Natale was part of the anti-Adani convoy that protested in Queensland to stop the mine.

Di Natale does not want that mine to go ahead - and neither does Labor’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler.

Butler not only does not want Adani to go ahead, he does not believe any more mines should be opened in the Galilee Basin because it “is not in the national interest”.

If Labor wins the election, say goodbye to Adani, because Queensland Treasurer Jackie Trad will be cheering on from the sidelines.

Then there’s the general question on Labor’s climate change targets. Labor’s twin policies of a 50 per cent renewable energy target and reducing pollution by 45 per cent.

That’s not enough for the Greens, who want all coal mining exports to end by 2030.

It is interesting politics. The Greens need to be greener because Labor has ramped up its climate change policies.

Shorten has been keen to distance himself from the Greens.

But this election could be extremely tight, and if it is a hung parliament, Labor will be reaching out to the only current Greens MP in Parliament – Adam Bandt.

Shorten does not want to owe anyone anything, but this election result is almost certainly going to require high-stakes horse trading.