Greens celebration of polling may be a little premature

The Greens are celebrating internal polling showing they’re on track to clinch several state seats, including Jackie Trad’s. But it might be a tad early for champagne-popping if the past is anything to go by, writes Jessica Marszalek.

They’ve been whooping it up over at Greens HQ this past week.

Spirits are high since internal polling showed the minor party was on track to steal South Brisbane from former deputy premier Jackie Trad, keep Maiwar, and give Education Minister Grace Grace a run for her money over in McConnel.

But it might be a tad early for champagne-popping and chicken-counting if the past is anything to go by.

In fact, much like no one believes the shepherd by the end in The Boy who Cried Wolf, a lot of people are rolling their eyes over grand claims in 2020 that the Greens are about to make history with a parliament bloc in Queensland.

Greens candidate for South Brisbane Amy MacMahon. Photo: Nigel Hallett

That’s because they’ve heard it all before.

In fact, the Greens have been celebrating winning seats across the country for years, despite then going on to not win them more often than not.

The Greens have long been after Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s Sydney seat of Grayndler. Photo: Gary Ramage

I mean, if internal polling is right, they’ve won Grayndler, Sydney, Batman in NSW, Higgins, Macnamara, Wills, Cooper and Kooyong in Victoria, Griffith and South Brisbane in Queensland and a couple of Tasmanian upper house seats. Right? Hmmm …

“Right now the Greens are on the verge of a historic breakthrough,” wrote Greens South Brisbane candidate Amy MacMahon in 2017.

“We stand to win three seats, from both Labor and the LNP, and we’re doing it with an exciting message of hope.”

Greens McConnel candidate Kirsten Lovejoy and Greens Maiwar MP Michael Berkman Photo: Glenn Hunt

Over in McConnel, Kirsten Lovejoy, who is running against Ms Grace again this year, was “looking forward to being one of those winning state seats” in 2017.

In the end, they won Maiwar by a whisker, but fell short in South Brisbane where LNP preferences helped Labor.

They ran in third place in McConnel, a hefty 2000 votes behind Ms Grace and their preferences helped her leapfrog the LNP.

This year, things are certainly different, but by no means are they clear.

The LNP has made the surprising decision to preference their political enemies in South Brisbane, such is their distaste for Labor’s polarising, Left-wing, former deputy premier.

And they’ve not ruled doing it elsewhere too.

Member for South Brisbane Jackie Trad is fighting for her political life in South Brisbane against the Greens. Photo: Claudia Baxter

This should mean Ms MacMahon (inset) can come in second behind Ms Trad and still clinch the seat – something she did easily last time, registering 9549 first preference votes to Ms Trad’s 10,007.

Should 2017’s results be repeated on October 31, the LNP’s first preference would be distributed to Ms MacMahon, pushing her well over the line.

Of course, whether welded-on conservatives will send their preferences to a party that is the antithesis of everything they stand for is anyone’s guess.

How many people will use how-to-vote cards during a pandemic anyway, with many planning to vote early and by postal vote?

Would LNP voters be happier to cast a donkey vote, than one for a Greens MP that could hold the power in a Palaszczuk minority government?

Green's candidate Amy MacMahon and Greens Councillor Jonathan Sri campaigns at the 2017 poll. Photo: AAP Image/Glenn Hunt

And will Greens votes grow or shrink during a recession when the stakes are so high and people are worried for their jobs?

In fact, not even the Greens knew how to factor the LNP preference decision into the internal polling by Lonergan, which also contained the caveat: “The Greens vote is typically over-represented in polls, so please treat the data cautiously, particularly with 10 per cent undecided.”

So why release the polling? Perhaps it’s about galvanising their supporters and invigorating volunteers?

Indeed Ms MacMahon is practising some blue-sky, positive thinking.

“We’ve got a huge chance to win not just here in South Brisbane, but in up to 7 seats in Queensland parliament, and transform Queensland politics for years to come,” she posted about this election in August last year.

The Greens now also believe they could take Cooper from Labor with the retirement of Kate Jones, pictured with new candidate Jonty Bush. Photo: Peter Wallis

And just hours after Tourism Minister Kate Jones announced her retirement from politics earlier this month, Greens Councillor for The Gabba Jonathan Sri was crystal gazing an amazing new future for the Greens in her electorate of Cooper too. That’s despite Labor picking a very accomplished and well-known candidate in Jonty Bush to replace and be mentored by Ms Jones and the Greens running a distant third there last time.

“Katinka Winston-Allom – Greens for Cooper is now a serious chance of winning the state electorate of Ashgrove,” Cr Sri declared on Facebook.

The Gabba councillor Jonathan Sri chants slogans during a refugee protest march in Brisbane. Photo: NCA NewsWire/Dan Peled

“It’s now well within the realms of possibility that the Greens could retain the state seat of Maiwar, while Amy MacMahon picks up South Brisbane, Kirsten Lovejoy wins McConnel and Katinka wins Cooper, so we end up holding the balance of power in Queensland.

“Far out.”

Far out, indeed!