Fortress LNP stands: Dutton’s patch up showing in Fadden by-election result with swing against Labor

The LNP was always expected to hold the seat of Fadden, but it was the size of the win that will give heart to Peter Dutton, writes Matthew Killoran.

The LNP’s Fortress Queensland remains standing. Cracks may still be showing, but the work Peter Dutton has done to patch up the battered blue wall has helped stabilise the structure.

There was never any doubt of the headline result of Saturday’s by-election: former councillor Cameron Caldwell will be the LNP’s new member for Fadden, defeating Labor’s Letitia Del Fabbro.

It was the size and direction of the swing that mattered, and with a small swing to the LNP on a two-party-preferred basis, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be breathing a sigh of relief.

Mr Dutton on Saturday night gave a call-out to weary party supporters across the country, reassuring them the “work we’ve done together in the past 12 months” had made a difference.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton with LNP candidate for Fadden Cameron Caldwell. Picture: Facebook

Maintaining the Fortress Queensland image was vital for Opposition leader Peter Dutton.

It is his back yard, the LNP hold 21 out of the 30 seats federally and a swing against it as seen in Aston just a few months ago would have been a blow to his leadership.

On election day, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said anything less than a 4 per cent swing against the government would be a bad result – and the LNP looked set last night to get close to those expectations.

The average swing against a government at a by-election is 3.8 per cent, based on parliamentary analysis, so the result was somewhat status quo.

But after losing the Aston by-election, South Australia and Victorian state elections, it was an important win the Coalition.

It campaigned on cost-of-living in Aston in April, and voters turned against them.

This time, it worked. Interest rates are up, rents are rising and grocery bills are soaring. The shine has started to come off the Albanese Government, but not too much just yet.

LNP candidate for Fadden Cameron Caldwell and his wife Lauren vote at Coomera Rivers State School. Picture: Dan Peled/NCA NewsWire

Labor campaigned heavily on the former Member Stuart Robert and his role in Robodebt, but even before election day both sides of politics were saying it wasn’t resonating with voters.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese put in his one and only appearance for his candidate’s campaign launch, while Mr Dutton was a frequent visitor to Fadden.

The LNP significantly out spent Labor at the by-election, having been spooked by Aston, and left nothing on the field.

It is a long time out from the federal election yet, but Labor will be wanting to see the cost-of-living pressures ease before it faces the voters once again.