Federal election body blows: How will Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese fight it out?

With a federal election looming, what strategies, stunts and slogans are the Coalition and Labor likely to pull out to get their party over the line? We talk to insiders.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese had taken great care not to offer a target to Scott Morrison. Picture: Flavio Brancaleone

With parliament shuttered, political minds have turned to the date of the next election, expected in either March or May. What has been less talked about is how each side is planning to win. This week the Herald Sun spoke to a number of political insiders about the strategies the Coalition and Labor plan to implement to try and ensure either Scott Morrison or Anthony Albanese emerges as the next Prime Minister. This is what they had to say – anonymously.

LABOR

Until Friday, when he unveiled his ambitious target of cutting carbon emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, Labor leader Anthony Albanese had taken great care not to offer a target to Scott Morrison.

Gone was the big taxing agenda that cost it office at the last election.

Circumstances have also conspired to make it harder for Labor to roll policy out.

“Due to Covid there’s only been one game in town and that’s limited our opportunities to talk about things to a certain extent,” a Labor campaign insider said.

“There wouldn’t have been much point trying to talk about anything else.”

But it’s not only Covid.

Albanese’s job as Opposition Leader has been harder than Shorten’s because Scott Morrison has offered a much smaller-target for Labor to attack.

Is Australian Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese ‘a blank canvas’? Picture: Lukas Coch

In his first outing as Treasurer, Joe Hockey revealed plans: To make people pay to visit the doctor; freeze Family Tax Benefits; freeze eligibility thresholds for welfare payment; make the young unemployed wait six months before they could get the dole; make university graduates repay their student debts at a lower income; raise income taxes for people on $100,000; cut the rate at which pensions would grow; and raise the retirement age to 70.

It was easy for an Opposition Leader to be on the attack every day.

“The whole of that (first) parliament was framed by the 2014 budget,” the Labor figure said.

In contrast Morrison and his Treasurer Josh Frydenberg have thrown money at every problem as they battled the pandemic.

The result is that Labor finds itself facing an election as early as March with few policies in the market place and time running out to define its leader in the mind of the public.

“There wouldn’t be a focus group that didn’t have one or two people who couldn’t name the Leader of the Opposition,” a senior Liberal strategist claims.

Labor acknowledges the problem and accepts it is going to have to do more to define Albanese before the election. But in recent weeks it has instead focused on attacking Scott Morrison over his character and honesty.

Labor’s strategy with Albanese will be two fold.

First will be an emphasis on his personal story – a kid raised in public housing by a single mum. This will be married to an attempt to paint him as a consensus politician with a vision.

“We’ll be talking about the future – what does the country look like in three to five years?” a Labor figure said. “There’s a distinction to be drawn between his leadership style and a PM who avoids responsibility and is basically a divisive character.”

So much for the leadership. What about the policies?

Labor insiders acknowledge one of the problems at the last election was that it was promising to do too much and that too many of their policies didn’t connect with voters.

Another Labor campaign veteran characterises it as the DL question – a reference to printed flyers which are a third of the size of the A4 page.

“Ask yourself quickly three reasons to vote Labor which could be printed on DL?” he said.

“With Abbott it was stop the boats, repeal the Carbon Tax and strong economy and jobs. “Unless people have clear and simple reasons to vote for you, you’ll struggle to win,” he said.

Given the pandemic has pushed health up the list of issues of concern to voters it is a fair bet that an expansion of medical services – especially in regional areas – is going to be one of the answers on any Labor DL card.

“It’s going to easier to see a doctor under Labor,” an insider said.

Tony Abbott campaigned strongly to ‘stop the boats’, but what clear message do the current leaders have? Picture: Adam Yip

What else? Albanese has already announced Labor would use government procurement to favour Australian companies so it is a fair bet to say there’s going to be more on expanding domestic manufacturing.

Given Labor is committed to beating the Coalition on climate change, this is likely to be connected to building up the country’s renewable-energy sector and jobs in it.

“’Health care, hospitals, infrastructure which is Albanese’s big thing: it’s a great middle suburbs pitch around quality of life,” one campaign veteran says, striking a note of caution.

“It’s not enough to say we’re not Morrison and we’re not Shorten,” he said.

“People want a plan but not a visionary one because we’ve all had government in our lives for the past two years.”

COALITION

It’s understood Labor is relying on people disliking Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Adam Taylor

The Government is convinced Labor’s failure to define Albanese represents a massive opportunity.

“If you leave a canvas blank, you’re inviting someone else to paint on it,” a senior Liberal said.

Coalition MPs all agree Albanese is going to feature “heavily” saying voters view him as weak.

“Politics is increasingly visual,” one said.

“Chalmers looks like an alternative Prime Minister, so do Shorten, Plibersek, and Keneally. Albanese dresses like a senator. He looks like a slob.”

The Coalition DL? “He kept you safe. He protected your job, Oh my God have you had a look at Anthony Albanese?”

But what about a vision for the future?

Liberal strategists are betting that after two years of pandemic people are keen to get back normal and if the economy booms as it threatens to do post-pandemic, voters won’t worry about the lack of an agenda.

“People want their lives back to normal – they’re sick of walking around with face masks,” an MP said.

The Coalition is hoping the Covid pandemic will be fading as an issue by polling day. Picture: David Crosling

Another jokes: “It worked last time”.

The Coalition is also betting that by the time the election arrives, the pandemic will be fading as an issue.

“A budget will focus people’s minds on economic management, which is still one of the Coalition’s core electoral strengths,” a Liberal official said.

A Labor veteran worries the pitch will work.

“What Morrison has is a subtle message – less than subtle – about getting government out of their lives which is about Victoria,” he said.

“Research shows a lot of Victorians are out love with Dan after six lockdowns and a (pandemic) bill that was poorly explained and not justified. This dovetails with the message from the NSW Govt. It also helps get base votes back in Queensland where their vote is fracturing to Palmer and One Nation. It’s about locking in the base.”

He said rising house prices, low unemployment and superannuation accounts performing well are all pointers to a conservative victory.

“They’re relying on people disliking Scott Morrison but his negatives – like his lies – are known and baked in and he’s still competitive.”

Originally published as Federal election body blows: How will Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese fight it out?