Explained: What happens if double dissolution pin is or isn’t pulled

A double dissolution was disasterous for Malcolm Turnbull but Kevin Rudd lived to regret not calling one of his own. This is what Anthony Albanese needs to consider, writes Paul Williams.

Australia’s usually sedate Senate is headed for debate as fiery as the chamber’s red furnishings.

Labor this week reintroduced its $10bn Housing Australia Future Fund legislation designed to spend $500m annually to build 30,000 houses over five years. It’s a modest target, given the demand for 600,000 new dwellings.

Last month, the bill was stalled (in effect, rejected) by the Senate, and a trigger was built for an early double dissolution should the bill again fail.

The reason? The Coalition says it goes too far; the Greens say not far enough. The Greens want an extra $2.5bn spent directly on social housing each year (a good idea to bolster supply), and a two-year rent freeze negotiated with the states (a bad idea that will pull rental properties from an already-tight market).

The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is considering calling a double dissolution. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

On Monday, the Greens – who hold the balance of power – looked prepared to negotiate. But with the minor party now demanding Labor also tighten tax breaks for property investors – something Labor won’t do if it hurts mum and dad investors – a double dissolution is back on the table.

PM Anthony Albanese’s advisers may well use Malcolm Turnbull’s disastrous 2016 double dissolution as a warning not to pull the election trigger. Turnbull, desperate to assert himself as a strong, conservative leader, called his own double dissolution over anti-union legislation.

The gamble backfired: the Coalition scraped back into office with 76 House seats, and lost three Senators.

The double dissolution move backfired for Malcolm Turnbull

But the first-term Albanese government in no way resembles Turnbull’s second-term Coalition. If Albo did call a double dissolution election for the first half of next year, there’s every chance Labor would increase its thin House majority, and pick up new Labor senators, including one in Queensland.

Indeed, Kevin Rudd – forced out of office in mid-2010 – lived to regret not calling his own double dissolution over climate change legislation just months before.

Kevin Rudd lived to regret not calling a double dissolution. Picture: Stefan Postles/Getty Images

The only stumbling block to Albo steamrollering both the Coalition and the Greens? An almost certain heavy defeat in the First Nations Voice to Parliament referendum, in which Albo is politically invested. But if Albo postponed the referendum and called an election for May next year, he could set Labor up for a likely third term.

Paul Williams is an Associate Professor at Griffith University