Editorial: White-hot anger over youth crime will bring down Labor

The anger has been there for years, but it is still white-hot – and it’s now increasingly clear that this might be the issue that tips Labor from office, writes the editor.

David Crisafulli (left) aims to exploit Steven Miles’s record on youth crime.

The anger has been there for years, but it is still white-hot – and it’s now increasingly clear that youth crime might be the issue that tips Labor from office at the state election.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli clearly knows this, which is why he has chosen the issue as the one area he has now outlined a fully formed policy response to: with his populist but popular “adult time for adult crimes” pledge, his 12-month rehabilitation on release program, and now his plans for child safety and residential care.

We are always keen to see more from the LNP in terms of their plans for government, as they are now firmly the favourites – with betting agencies putting the odds at $1.20 to $5 in their favour in the two-horse race on October 26.

But at least on youth crime the voters have a clear choice between the opposition and the incumbent. We welcome this clarity.

Premier Steven Miles is struggling to compete against David Crisafulli and the LNP.

It should be no surprise, though, that this is the policy area that Mr Crisafulli has chosen to lean into. The Northern Territory election of the weekend before last shows just what can happen at the ballot box to the government when fears of youth crime take hold.

At that election, there was a 17.7 per cent swing to the Opposition Country Liberal Party, or 11.1 per cent on two-party-preferred terms. Labor’s primary vote fell to 28.7 per cent, down 10.8 per cent since the last election four years ago.

The chief minister heading into the election, Eva Lawlor, even lost her electorate in the wipe-out that has left Labor with just four seats in the 25-seat assembly.

The same two-party-preferred swing in Queensland – where, like in the NT, youth crime has been a big issue since the last time voters had their say – would see 26 Labor MPs lose their seats, leaving the party with just 25 – a massive 22 short of a majority.

Now comparing one result with another is of course a seriously problematic what-if scenario, but the last YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail, taken in July, did show a 10 per cent two-party-preferred swing against the government here since the 2020 election – and a Labor primary vote of 26 per cent.

Yesterday the LNP announced its child safety strategy, including the recruitment of hundreds more child safety officers, a new “professional” foster carers’ program – as well as the construction of a $50m “secure care facility” to house a dozen children deemed by a court to require intensive wraparound therapeutic care.

Add to that the LNP’s decision to preselect the grieving father of a victim of youth crime to run against a Labor MP who dismissed youth crime as a “media beat-up” – a decision we called a masterstroke in this column yesterday – and the Opposition has put some solid icing on their youth crime platform.

Premier Steven Miles has been trying hard to compete, winding back various go-soft laws pushed for by his own Left faction at the start of this term of government almost a decade ago. But the damage has been done – and the reality is that Queensland victims of crime are blaming the government, as it was in the Northern Territory too.

Labor’s last chance is to turn this election into a popularity contest between the two leaders. But our poll in July also found that 62 per cent of voters say they will cast their ballot on the policies, not on who will be the leader (18 per cent).

These are deeply worrying times for the Queensland Labor Party.

LNP SHOULD REMOVE SUPER TAX

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is wrong to stick with Treasurer Cameron Dick’s unfair taxes on metallurgical coal miners – as he has now confirmed he plans to, at least until July 2028.

As we have reported many times since they were introduced without consultation or warning two years ago, the tax that takes up to 40 per cent of the sale price of coal – depending on world prices – is at the top of the global pack when it comes to the rate imposed.

That means that Queensland is now a far more expensive place to mine for coal, and so over time more and more miners will choose to invest in projects elsewhere rather than here.

That does not matter for Mr Dick, as he will be long gone from public life before those decisions have an impact. Meanwhile, he has reaped an extra $9.4bn from mining companies – allowing his state budget to look far more healthy than it otherwise would have (even though the Miles government’s spending addiction has led to it borrowing record sums above and beyond the windfall).

It does matter for Queensland’s economic future. About 25 per cent of the state government’s annual revenue comes from the royalties imposed on mining companies. If they make the decision to invest in new mines elsewhere because the royalties rates are too high here, the entire budget – and our shared prosperity – is in some trouble.

Mr Crisafulli must reconsider, and accept the political risk.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here