Editorial: Weather bureau needs all the support it can get

It is an uncomfortable reality that the Bureau of Meteorology can get it seriously wrong when it comes to weather forecasting, writes the editor.

It is an uncomfortable reality that the Bureau of Meteorology can get it seriously wrong when it comes to weather forecasting.

The bureau is widely regarded as a trusted and highly valued institution after 115 years of monitoring and forecasting the nation’s weather. Last week, as the bureau predicted, Cyclone Jasper tracked into the Far North carrying with it flooding rains, which the bureau had predicted consistently throughout last week.

But Jasper didn’t speed off to the Gulf as predicted. The remnants of the storm settled slightly west of Kowanyama and dumped a historic deluge across the north that broke century-old records, causing far more damage than high-velocity winds.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles has been quick this week to defend the bureau after the failure to predict the extent of the deluge.

“I think the bureau gave all the notice and warning they could based on the information that was available to them,’’ Mr Miles said. “They do the best they can.’’

Undoubtedly, they do.

But many Queenslanders, who now take advantage of the wide range of weather forecasting services available in the internet age, couldn’t help but notice that several other forecasting agencies did a little better.

Last Saturday evening, there were forecasts from other weather services of epic 1000-2000mm rainfalls up to four hours before the bureau updated the severe weather warning, which the bureau then forecast in the wrong area.

As the bureau’s senior meteorologist Laura Boekel told reporters on Tuesday, the BOM uses “the best science”.

She explained that rain rates evolved quickly over the weekend, so the warning strategy had to change quickly as well. It just didn’t change quickly enough.

The bureau may be the victim of a growing public belief that scientific modelling, whether it be on weather events or other areas of inquiry, is infallible, when it clearly isn’t.

There are far too many variables in the complex equations of storm and drought for any forecaster to come up with consistently accurate predictions, even if we do acknowledge the bureau has a pretty good track record in doing so.

Yet we do also note that in September this year the bureau declared an El Nino event, as did the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the United Nations World Meteorological Organisation.

The proclamation of an El Nino event means dry weather and heatwaves are likely in Northern Australia. Acting on the El Nino advice, hundreds of Queensland graziers began selling stock causing a serious plunge in the price of cattle.

When strong rainfalls arrived in November, the cattle price rebounded sharply as graziers struggled to buy back stock to feed on replenished pastures at massive mark-ups, causing financial headaches in Queensland grazing families.

But rather than simply pointing the finger of blame, it might be more appropriate for governments to look at BOM funding and ensure the institution has all the resources it needs to bring us the best possible advice.

The bureau received a real increase in funding from $433m to $495m in Labor’s first federal budget in 2022. This year’s federal budget included $236m over the next decade for new rain gauges, and Queensland is expected to be prioritised in the rollout.

But if more resources are needed, few Australian taxpayers would begrudge the bureau more funding if it led to improved expertise and more accurate forecasts.

WISHES OF PEACE FOR LOVELL FAMILY

You would be hard pressed to find anyone who isn’t heartbroken for Lee Lovell and his daughters. Or inspired by their bravery.

As the family prepares for the first anniversary of the tragic death of wife and mother Emma, Lee has revealed that he and his girls can’t bear to stay at home for Christmas.

Today, they will fly to the UK to spend time with family, leaving behind the torture of 12 months ago.

Emma was fatally stabbed in the chest after the couple disturbed two young intruders, who had broken into their North Lakes home on December 26, 2022.

“I just wanted to run away,’’ Lee said. Emma’s death has not only changed what was a happy family occasion for the Lovells, but also thrust the family into the spotlight as the faces of Queensland’s escalating youth crime crisis.

It’s that “poster boy” image that no longer sits well with Lee, who is taking a step back from his involvement with vocal advocacy group Voice for Victims.

We wish Lee and his daughters a peaceful Christmas and look forward to how the new Miles government plans to tackle the state’s youth crime crisis so that other families can continue to enjoy these holidays with their loved ones.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here