Editorial: Qld to once again play key role in determining next PM

Anthony Albanese’s flying visit is just the latest example of the vital role Queensland will again play in determining who wins the keys to The Lodge next year, writes the editor.

It is no coincidence Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese was on the first plane to touch down in Brisbane from Sydney yesterday after the border restrictions were lifted in the early morning.

Mr Albanese’s flying visit (he returned after just a few hours on the ground) was just the latest example of the vital role Queensland will again play in determining who wins the keys to The Lodge at the federal election next year. In fact, were it not for a state visit by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, it’s a safe bet Prime Minister Scott Morrison would have arrived the same day.

At the 2019 election, the LNP walked away with a whopping 23 out of 30 Queensland seats.

Labor was reduced to just six – with nothing north of Noosa. In the Senate contest, Labor suffered its worst result in the Senate since World War II.

A bruising campaign around Labor’s position on coal jobs and climate targets was blamed for the terrible result. But the playing field has changed in the past few years.

Not only is Mr Albanese much more aware than his predecessor of the need to juggle mining jobs and climate action, but the fact is the Morrison government will now need to keep most – if not all – of its 23 seats in Queensland if it wants to retain power in its own right. It will therefore have to run a strong defensive game in seats such as Flynn, Longman and in Leichhardt, where veteran MP Warren Entsch was talked out of retirement.

And while the government has given itself the option of a March budget, don’t expect big election spending pledges on stadiums – as it will have to try to balance economic recovery with beginning to rebuild the nation’s battered finances.

Mr Albanese has clearly learnt the lessons from his predecessor’s mistakes – and has been talking the right talk when it comes to his new climate change and emissions reduction policy.

There are carve-outs for coalmines and coal-fired power stations in the emission reduction plan, with a promise that jobs won’t be lost – with the notable caveat of “as a direct result of this policy”.

Labor is desperate to win back Flynn for the first time since 2007, and their candidate Matt Burnett is the popular Gladstone mayor. Labor also wants to close the margin in other seats such as Capricornia, Herbert and Dawson.

On Mr Albanese’s trip to Queensland yesterday, he hit the husting in Longman, which his side lost to the LNP in 2019. Labor will also need to run a protective play on its left flank for Terri Butler in Griffith, as the Greens make a play for the inner-city seat.

Where Mr Morrison campaigns when he touches down in the Sunshine State later this week will be telling. How he shifts his messaging will also give an indication on how nimble he will be.

He has been talking up getting the government out of people’s lives in NSW and Victoria (two states that spent months in lockdown). That message might not work as well in Queensland, where the state government’s quick impositions on people’s lives is what saved us from extended lockdowns.

Now the state’s borders are all but certain to remain open – and so Covid is coming our way. How that plays out here will likely also be pivotal in the election. Regardless, it is a truth universally acknowledged that a federal political leader in possession of good polling must be in want of Queensland.

VACCINATION CRITICAL FOR NORMALITY

Just as getting your first two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine is critical, taking the time to go and be jabbed again when you are due for your booster shot is as important.

All the evidence suggests that not only does the protection given by two doses wear off over time, but that the new Omicron variant is able to evade the first two doses – but not so much the third.

And we all had another reminder yesterday of the importance of ensuring you are properly vaccinated, with the state’s chief health officer, John Gerrard, saying in his experience of two years on the frontline of the Covid-19 emergency, the virus is not a big deal for those who have had their jabs.

Dr Gerrard said vaccinated people who caught Covid-19 either had no symptoms or experienced the equivalent of a mild cold.

So take heart Queenslanders – 88 per cent of you have done the right thing to protect yourself. Get your booster if you’re due. And get on with life.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here