Editorial: Is it time for the LNP to split and other soul-searching questions

While exclusive new polling paints a dire picture for the Coalition a deeper dive indicates both sides will need to ask themselves some serious questions once the election result is known.

IT is far from a total landslide, but the situation forecast by exclusive YouGov polling conducted for News Corp and The Courier-Mail still paints a dire picture for Scott Morrison and the Coalition come election day.

The “most likely outcome”, according to the YouGov survey has Labor winning 80 of the 151 seats in federal parliament – a comfortable majority, and one which reflects the 54-46 two-party preferred vote that recent traditional national polling is now indicating.

While polls have been wrong prior to past elections, they are all so consistent – and overwhelmingly in Labor’s favour – just over a week now from votes being cast that it can pretty safely be assumed that despite his repeated stumbles on the campaign, Anthony Albanese will be Australia’s next prime minister.

But dig a bit deeper into today’s polling results and if this “most likely” scenario plays out come May 21, the Coalition and Labor will need to undertake some post-election soul-searching – for near opposing reasons.

Member for Brisbane Trevor Evans.

The polling suggests the seat of Brisbane, held by the LNP’s Trevor Evans, will be won by Labor’s Madonna Jarrett – with the seat under threat because of inner-city voters being attracted to Labor’s position on climate change, and generally having less to lose from a change of government and so motivated instead by the way this government (and the Prime Minister) has handled the issue of respect for women over the past 18 months. Those points are supported by the finding Mr Morrison and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce are net negatives in inner-city Brisbane, just as they are to voters in central Sydney and Melbourne.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce and Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

It is telling Mr Morrison has barely campaigned in Brisbane in the almost five weeks of the campaign so far. This polling suggests any shift from that strategy would likely be counter-productive.

There is a question raised here that has been raised plenty of times before: should the LNP split and become the Liberals and the Nationals again? If the Coalition is swept out of power by losing city seats and holding on to the outer-suburban and regional vote, then that does become a live issue.

With the views of Nationals-aligned politicians such as Senator Matt Canavan now diametrically opposed to the opinions of moderate MPs such as Trevor Evans or Julian Simmonds, it has perhaps become too awkward and too hard for the LNP as a single unit to appease urban and regional voters.

Even if Anthony Albanese and Labor win they will have some questions to ask themselves over their performance in regional Queensland. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

Labor, meanwhile, could find itself taking government – but without a single Queensland seat north of Esk. Queensland’s regional cities such as Gladstone, Townsville and Cairns are where the people Labor once considered to be their base – blue collar workers – live.

But the regions deserted Labor in 2019 and even if there is a margin correction on May 21 (which those at pre-polling so far this week suggest is likely), the party will still need to reflect on why it has been unable to seize back those seats won by Kevin Rudd’s Labor in 2007.

Of course, the real results of this election are not yet known. And while the YouGov is a pretty robust way of predicting the mood in each seat, ultimately we will need to wait until the evening of May 21 to know what voters have decided.

There are still nine days to go, and Queensland has shown time and again it surprises even the keenest of political watchers.