Clear messaging key to Scott Morrison staying on a roll

Despite Scott Morrison’s support surging in the polls, he faces a huge challenge in September when Jobkeeper comes to an end. The key is getting us off the bed of welfare without damaging our hip-pocket or his re-election, writes Paul Williams.

THEY say the old Indian mystic trick of lying on a bed of nails, while appearing dangerous, is actually pretty easy.

The hard part is getting on and off the spikes without suffering severe injury.

When Prime Minister Scott Morrison gingerly laid Australia down on COVID-19 nails in March, almost everyone found it uncomfortable.

But a $320 billion stimulus package (including a $130 billion Jobkeeper program now assisting six million Australians and over 800,000 businesses) at least dulled the pain.

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The trick for Swami Morrison, then, is getting us off the bed of welfare without damaging our hip-pocket or his re-election. And the curtain on ScoMo’s next act rises in September when Jobkeeper comes to an end.

So far, Australians have been very appreciative of a hands-on PM pulling economic levers faster than John Maynard Keynes.

This week’s Newspoll reveals Morrison is still enjoying huge public approval, at 64 per cent, and still leads the near-invisible Opposition leader Anthony Albanese, 56 to 29.

Labor, too, appears marginalised, with a primary vote falling to 35 per cent.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Getty

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Picture: AAP/Tsikas

In short, with the Coalition’s primary vote now at 43 points – its highest level in almost four years – approval of the PM is finally trickling down to his Government.

The bad news is that, if an election were held today, the Coalition – on just 51 per cent after preferences – would just hang on by the fingernails of a slipping One Nation vote.

So what’s going on?

Is it that Australians simply cannot reward a government overseeing an unemployment level tipped to hit 11 per cent by August, and almost 13 per cent next year – the worst since the Great Depression?

Probably not. Newspoll also found the number of Australians fearful of losing their job has fallen six points to 30 per cent.

Perhaps it’s the looming record national debt, and a federal budget deficit of around 10 per cent of GDP by 2021 (the highest since the Second World War)? Quite possibly.

Newspoll also found that, after a fear of contracting the coronavirus itself, Australians’ number one worry today is how to their government will manage national debt.

The biggest challenge of Morrison’s prime ministership, then, might not be the virus itself but lifting Australians painlessly off the welfare bed – a day we all knew would come.

After all, ScoMo is a small-government neoliberal who believes Australians stand tallest when on their own two feet.

It’s a point of difference between his party and Labor he happily rammed home at the last election.

That’s why, come September, we can expect Coalition politics and public relations to overtake its policy.

Why? Because the great political (and not policy) failure of the Rudd and Gillard Labor governments was their inability to sell the message – especially during the cack-handed 2010 election campaign – of how Rudd saved Australia from recession (via an economic stimulus package resisted by the Liberals) during the Global Financial Crisis.

If the Coalition fails to harness a similar message, expect an ungrateful Australia to dump the Coalition for welfare-strong Labor party at a federal election that could be just 15 months away.

And, with a Coalition weighed down by obligations to keep us informed with hourly updates of flattening curves and shifting lockdown rules, there’s every risk the Government’s much-needed central message – “Be grateful, we kept you safe and financial” – will be lost.

That’s why Morrison needs a single, simple thread in its narrative, perhaps a bombshell announcement of, for example, huge and ongoing subsidies for childcare or private health insurance.

Morrison doesn’t even need to offer money. A symbolic gesture that strikes a cultural chord could be enough.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Picture: AAP/Darren England

This is something Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has clearly worked out.

While she’s copped plenty of blowback for delaying the reopening of the Queensland border till – potentially – September, the Premier’s tough line is actually a political masterstroke, even if a policy minefield for tourism and other sectors.

Not only is it a barbecue stopper, it’s also a single overarching motif distinguishing Labor from the LNP.

It also resonates perfectly with our conservative and populist political culture: respect for a strong leader who stands up for Queensland while spurning ruffian ratbags south of the Tweed.

Even Palaszczuk’s apparent petulance – “I make absolutely no apologies for protecting the health of Queenslanders” – was pure parochial gold.

The lesson is simple: it’s one thing to manage a crisis, but it’s even better to be seen to be managing it well.