Can Scott Morrison weather Queensland poll storm

Scott Morrison is a canny political operative and it would be foolhardy to rule him out. But right now he’s staring at a political storm akin to a Queensland cyclone.

PRIME Minister Scott Morrison has made Queensland his second home in recent weeks.

He toured the flood-ravaged northwest last week and went to Townsville following the city’s destructive deluge before that.

Mr Morrison held his first Cabinet meeting for the year in Queensland late last month and stayed for four days to make a series of small but targeted infrastructure announcements.

The Prime Minister is obviously not here for the weather.

Rather, Mr Morrison would be all too aware that Queensland has shown over successive federal and state elections that it is politically volatile territory.

And as The Courier-Mail’s latest YouGov Galaxy poll figures demonstrate, the state’s notoriously capricious political nature is currently giving Mr Morrison and the Liberal National Party no quarter.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison visiting Julia Creek inspects the twisted main railway line between Mount Isa and Townsville after the devastating floods. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

The LNP’s primary vote has sunk to a lowly 35 per cent in a state that is supposed to be a Coalition stronghold.

Tellingly, that vote is worse than when Mr Morrison took over the prime ministership from Malcolm Turnbull and considerably worse than what the LNP achieve at the 2016 Federal election. On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor now lead the LNP 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

This represents a swing against the LNP in Queensland of over six per cent, a result that could see as many as nine of Mr Morrison’s incumbent MPs lose their jobs.

The result is nothing short of dire for the Prime Minister. It indicates that he is not yet cutting through to voters and that Queenslanders are not warming to the blokey, cap-wearing everyman image he is attempting to display.

While it might surprise some pundits, this state’s voters have always struggled when the major parties change prime ministers on their behalf.

Mr Morrison has some time. However, it is now more a matter of weeks rather than months that he has left to convince voters the Coalition deserves another term in office.

His greatest assets appear to be Labor leader Bill Shorten and many of his policies.

Despite six years as Opposition Leader, Queenslanders have not warmed to Mr Shorten either.

The poll shows 40 per cent of voters are less likely to vote Labor because he is the leader. And his policies to end negative gearing on properties and scrap cash refunds on franking credits are just as unpopular.

This repudiation of Mr Shorten might give the LNP some weaponry to work with during the coming election campaign.

However, Mr Shorten has been unpopular for some time and so have his policies and that is still not attracting Queenslanders to the LNP’s cause.

The fact 13 per cent of voters have parked their support behind One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party only seems to cement the view that voters have a anyone-but-them attitude towards the Federal Coalition.

Mr Shorten and his policies are certainly deserving of far greater scrutiny. Labor’s quest to end negative gearing on new properties was ill-conceived when it was originally aired and appears to be looking downright irresponsible now that property prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, are declining.

However, such a campaign would be much more effective if the Federal Coalition conducted it from a position of credibility.

Mr Morrison is a canny political operative and it would be foolhardy to rule him out. However, right now he’s staring at a political storm akin to a Queensland cyclone.

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DRUMLINES KEEPING US SAFE

SHARK attacks on the NSW north coast seem to be occurring with frightening regularity.

The images of a surfboard with a huge bite taken out of it after the attack at Belongil Beach near Byron Bay yesterday morning will terrify people around the world.

Meanwhile, no recent incidents have occurred on the Gold Coast.

The difference, of course, is that nets and drumlines have been used on the Gold Coast to control shark numbers like they have been on many other Queensland beaches since 1962.

In fact, there are now almost 400 beaches along Queensland’s vast coastline that have drum lines installed.

This program is frequently derided as 1930s technology, criticised as cruel and has its effectiveness questioned.

However, the frequency of attacks in northern NSW, where there are no drumlines, compared with the lack of recent incidents on Gold Coast beaches, where drumlines are installed, certainly indicates the program is working.

Amid local resistance to Queensland’s methods, NSW has been trialling so-called “SMART drumlines” at some beaches. These drumlines apparently alert authorities when an animal is caught, increasing its chances of survival.

However, if this approach does not prove to work and the attacks continue, there will be long-term implications for the tourism economy of northern NSW. Already there are signs that the attacks around Ballina are having an impact.

If drumlines aren’t an option, authorities will have to consider new approaches and look for ways to improve how they target problem species. However, they may also have to consider closing beaches to swimmers, or at least warning people against going into the water.

Unfortunately, the impact of such action on the region would be profound.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Sam Weir, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details are available at www.couriermail.com.au/help/contact-us