Aston is the first time a sitting government has won an opposition-held seat in a by-election in more than a century

Labor’s historic win in Aston - which was a horror show for the Liberal Party - is emphatic endorsement of Anthony Albanese as PM.

The Aston result clearly show voters generally believe Anthony Albanese is doing a good job as PM and without the Teal factor in the federal election, Labor may have polled even better. Picture: Luis Ascui

A horror show.

There’s no other way to describe Saturday’s Aston by-election result for the Liberal Party and federal leader Peter Dutton.

Labor’s historic win was nothing short of an emphatic endorsement of Anthony Albanese’s government, and proof the electorate does not presently blame the Prime Minister for their cost-of-living woes.

This result, which marks the first time a sitting government has won an opposition-held seat in a by-election in more than a century, offers a few points to consider.

Firstly, it is clear the Liberals’ attempt to saddle Albanese with soaring interest rates and other costs failed. Perhaps, it’s simply too early. But also maybe the public genuinely sympathises with the fact that many inflationary factors are outside any government’s control.

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese with Mary Doyle. Picture: Luis Ascui

Part way through the by-election even the Liberals detected interest rates was not a winning strategy, and pivoted to focus increasingly on hyper-local issues like promised roads and infrastructure.

It was not enough.

Secondly, even though Labor did not initially push hard on the fact Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell was not a local, campaigners on the ground reported it to be a major factor.

Yes, Labor’s own candidate Mary Doyle also technically lived outside the electorate, but the party was able to ameliorate most critics by pointing out she had lived in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs generally for more than 35 years.

Local elements aside, there are also two national takeaways.

Roshena Campbell with Liberal party leader Peter Dutton. Picture: David Crosling

Peter Dutton at Lysterfield Primary School. Picture: David Crosling

Clearly, voters generally think Albanese is doing okay as PM, but also it seems without factors like the Teals and other minor parties, perhaps Labor’s 2022 primary vote would have been much higher.

And what of Dutton’s leadership? Certainly, he is safe for now. With no alternative remotely visible in the rear vision mirror and enough complicating factors to support the case that this was not all his doing, there’s no immediate threat to his position.

However, future politicos may point back to April fool’s Day in 2023 as the point at which things started to unravel for Dutton.

Originally published as Aston is the first time a sitting government has won an opposition-held seat in a by-election in more than a century