Analysis: Crime is the issue that will decide the 2024 Qld election

Integrity, health and housing have all damaged the Palaszczuk government, but this is where the next election will be won or lost, writes Hayden Johnson.

Politicians trapped inside the George Street bubble often struggle to comprehend the issues facing Queenslanders, but right now there is no doubt.

Integrity, health, housing and financial management have been issues plaguing the Palaszczuk government these past three years.

Yet the single issue cutting through the most and striking fear into Queenslanders – and by default marginal seat Labor MPs – is crime.

It is the issue permeating the community and each person affected is likely to share their harrowing tale with a dozen others.

It leads to, as this poll clearly reveals, people barricading their homes – fuelled by a perception the tools and resources of the honourable Queensland Police Service are not enough to keep them safe.

It is a nightmare for the government.

Grainy CCTV images of knife-wielding intruders are striking fear into residents and building an entrenched perception Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has no answers on the ‘crime crises’.

In Townsville – a crime hotbed – three Labor MPs are at risk of being booted out.

Ms Palaszczuk will visit the regional city on Sunday when, despite hand-picking people to meet with – the community could show up unannounced to offer a piece of their collective mind.

That would be the first real indication of whether the LNP is on track to win the three seats, a must if it is to form government in 2024.

While the opposition has successfully prosecuted problems in the health system, not all Queenslanders will visit a hospital in the next 12 months – and those who do are likely to have an overwhelmingly positive experience thanks to the people that work in them.

Not all Queenslanders will be affected by crime either, but it’s likely they’ll know someone who has.

Politics is perception and the perception is the government has lost control.