Analysis: Abysmal by-election result sparks turmoil for Labor and leader Steven Miles

The Hinchinbrook by-election is an abysmal result for Steven Miles, yet Labor still seems to fail to grasp the gravity of it, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.

Opposition Leader Steven Miles addresses the Labor state conference at the weekend. Picture: Tertius Pickard/NCA NewsWire

Not even in the dark days of the 2012 election bloodbath did Labor fail to reach double digits in a political contest. 

This is an abysmal result for Opposition Leader Steven Miles, yet Labor seems to fail to grasp the gravity of it.

Pundits put this as the worst primary result for Queensland Labor since the 1957 split.

Even in the bluest electorates of Warrego, Southern Downs and Nanango during Campbell Newman’s landslide Labor manage to muster at least 10 per cent.

Its vote in Hinchinbrook plunged five percentage points in one year to a dismal 8.2 per cent. 

Mr Miles and Labor optimists have brushed it off as an outcome of low electoral expenditure and the contest being between Katter’s Australian Perty and the LNP.

It shouldn’t dismiss the message regional Queensland is still sending Labor one year on from the 2024 battering.

In some corners of the Labor conference on Sunday party hardheads were declaring it’s now a matter of when – not if – Mr Miles will step down. 

Labor MPs and strategists were painting the Hinchinbrook by-election as inconsequential – the party might as well have painted ‘we can’t win’ on the few corflutes it printed. 

However, critically, there was an expectation Labor’s vote would hold steady at 14 per cent, rise or fall by a point or two.

This by-election was unusual in that it was sparked by the resignation of a popular local member.

That evened the playing field and Premier David Crisafulli is right to celebrate his triumph.

The LNP will enter 2026 knowing its calm approach to government is working and its campaign machine, led by Ben Riley, remains ruthlessly effective. 

They chose the by-election date for Labor conference weekend and around the due date of Robbie Katter’s wife Daisy. 

On the politics, the LNP outplayed everyone. 

Hinchinbrook was the chance for parties to, in the critical theatre of regional Queensland, test messaging, build a campaign structure and receive what could be the only report card from voters before the state heads back to the poll in 2028.

It suggests Mr Crisafulli is walking the right path to become a conservative hero while Labor should knuckle down for another term in opposition.