We are all paying the price for Gladys’ mismanagement of the current outbreak

NSW’s ‘gold standard’ Covid response last year can now be chalked up to good luck, as rapidly growing cases there threaten to spiral out of control and into other states.

Nine weeks ago Gladys Berejiklian was flying high - she’d been dubbed “the woman who saved Australia” with a famous “gold standard” Covid response which was keeping her state open and the virus out.

But just 60 days later, after 6881 Covid-19 cases and 37 deaths, the glowing assessment is being spectacularly rewritten – by her own side of politics as well as political foes.

NSW had simply “got lucky” a few times before the Delta outbreak, become “arrogant” and “unprepared” and is now playing “whack-a-mole” with the virus, senior federal and interstate politicial figures say.

Yesterday alone NSW recorded 390 new cases – with the virus on the march through regional NSW.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian gives the daily Covid-19 update as Sydney continues through Lockdown. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Jeremy Piper

What is becoming increasingly clear is the NSW outbreak and the failure of its government – is now affecting the whole country.

And there is nothing the rest of Australia can do about it.

“If NSW considered their impact on the rest of the country it would tip the balance to more places in harder lockdowns to keep the infection rate lower,” said Melbourne University epidemiologist Tony Blakely.

He said the restrictions currently in place in other states were now being driven by that outbreak.

So while Melbourne might currently be battling its own outbreak “once we get that under control, when we exit from this lockdown authorities may keep some restrictions in place to mitigate the impact of the next incursion.”

He also points out South Australia which still has restrictions in place on home visitors even though there are currently no cases there.

“That’s to make sure the tinderbox isn’t so dry,” he said.

NSW Police patrol Manly Beach. Picture: John Grainger

NSW’s failure to get a grip on the outbreak has bewildered and angered leaders in other states who have been forced to look on as the virus heads towards their borders.

They say in hindsight it is now clear it was luck, rather than good management, that was responsible for NSW’s performance last year.

Queensland Government insiders say if the limo driver case had happened in the Sunshine State they would have locked it down on the Tuesday – and been accused of overreacting – but it would have been over by that weekend.

“NSW has been too slow to act and hasn’t been strong enough enforcing restrictions,’’ one senior government insider said.

It’s a view shared by some in the federal government – who attribute the indecision to division inside the NSW Government.

“They’ve got to get their act together,” is the blunt assessment of one federal minister who believes Sydney should have been locked down “two months ago.”

“They were arrogant; they were unprepared,” he said.

Unsurprisingly politicians in Victoria – the previous holder of the Covid wooden spoon – agree.

“They’ve been playing whack-a-mole between LGAs and it’s got away from them,” one Victorian minister said.

Another MP said from the start NSW had failed to grasp that Delta was a game changer.

“They were operating on the principle that if you had an outbreak you stamp them out with face masks, case tracing, testing and isolation – and that worked up until alpha – then Delta made this model completely unviable,” he said.

“Our contact tracing is better now than it was last year – much better.

“We were more serious about it because we knew it could fail.”

The growing case numbers in NSW come amid fears its government may run up the white flag and start easing restrictions before vaccination rate has hit 70 per cent, an idea floated but quickly abandoned by Gladys Berejiklian last week.

A Victorian Government figure is blunt: “if they can’t control it they’re going to be cut off.”

Professor Blakely was more diplomatic: “Assuming NSW doesn’t lock down hard everywhere then it means Victoria and other states need incredibly strong borders and accepting the likelihood that there will be more incursions and therefore lockdowns.”

The view from Canberra is that the chance of a tighter lockdown happening is low.

“They’ve gone as far as they’re likely to go,” one senior government figure said, adding that the best that could be hoped for was better enforcement of the restrictions currently in place.

It’s a view that is not shared across the NSW Government with some still holding out hope the state might crackdown harder.

“Some of us want to throw the kitchen sink at it,” one senior minister said.

“We can’t stay like this until November.”

The minister said there was frustration at the failure to get the message to ethnic communities in affected areas.

“You’ve got incredible diversity in these communities, with many people with minimal English,” the minister said, “yet we’re trying to get through to them by having Gladys standing up at the 11am presser.”

Cops and Crowds

The view across the political spectrum at the moment is that as long as vaccination rates remain low, state premiers will stick to the hard elimination strategy whatever happens in NSW.

That’s because they believe they won’t suffer any political damage from imposing lockdowns and restrictions.

“I think what we’re seeing is proof positive is these premiers do what’s in their political interests,” one federal cabinet said.

Former ALP official, turned consultant, Kosmos Samaras has conducted focus groups around Australia in recent weeks.

He says most voters are not prepared to unload on the premiers because they blame the lockdowns on the slow vaccine rollout.

“Most people seem to think Morrison caused this,” he said.

He said this will change when vaccination rates rise.

“It comes up in groups unprompted – once people have had the opportunity to get vaccinated they will demand from their leaders no more lockdowns,” he said.

“The only caveat to that is children who can’t yet be vaccinated.”