Security expert warns Paris Olympics face unprecedented terror threat
With unrest internally and across Europe and the Middle East, experts warn the Paris Olympics face an ‘unprecedented’ terror threat. French security forces are ready.
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In 2004, as Athens prepared to host the first Olympic Games since September 11, Australian intelligence expert Neil Fergus did not mince his words about the danger posed by terror.
He said hosting those Olympics was the biggest security operation facing Greece “since Alexander the Great marched through Persia” in 334BC.
Two decades on, and Mr Fergus believes the threat facing Paris, and France, when the Olympics kicks off in less than three weeks, may be even greater.
Having consulted on security for 11 Olympic Games – including Paris – he said the mix of internal political tensions in France, combined with the Gaza conflict between Israel and Palestine, the war in Ukraine, the return of ISIS, and even the upcoming US Presidential election, was a potential recipe for trouble.
“I don’t think the world has been in a more uncertain geopolitical situation in living memory,” Mr Fergus, CEO of international security at Intelligent Risks, said.
“There have been four thwarted terrorist conspiracies in Paris already this year, with the key phrase being ‘thwarted’.
“In late-May a Russian citizen was alleged to be planning terror attacks on Olympic football venues.
“There is an increased destabilising operation against the French games by Russia, but the French authorities are incredibly skilled and experienced, not just in dealing with terror threats, but with hosting international events.
“I’m not fearful about going there, (but) it’s going to be interesting.”
The advice from the Australian Government about travelling to France paints a realistic picture of what the country has been facing ever since the November 2015 attack on the Bataclan, that saw ISIS terrorists kill 131 civilians.
“France’s national terrorist alert remains at the highest level,” the SmartTraveller website states.
“Terrorists could target events and locations in the lead-up to, during, and after the Olympic and Paralympic Games, including events associated with the Olympic Torch Relay, LGBTQIA+ community, music and cultural events, festivals, tourist areas, shopping areas, transport hubs, sporting events and other public areas.
“Exercise a high degree of caution in France due to the threat of terrorism.”
AUSSIES LIMIT THE GREEN AND GOLD
Australia is sending a team of close to 1000 athletes, coaches and support staff to Paris, as well as other host cities including Marseilles and Tahiti, where the sailing and surfing will take place.
While the Games is often the realisation of a life’s dedication to sport and training, the reality of the risks in Paris are not being ignored by the Australian Olympic Committee – to the point where Aussie athletes are being told not to wear their green and gold uniforms outside of the athletes village, to avoid making themselves targets.
AOC CEO Matt Carroll said small “common sense” moves would do a lot to protect Australians.
“For some time now, over 12 months, we have been preparing. We have our own security consultant, who is basically overseeing all our planning, and he’s attended briefings in Paris, with the (Olympics) organising committee and French police,” Mr Carroll said.
“Additionally, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) have embedded an officer in the AOC, so that officer will be staying in the Olympic Village in Paris.
“We’ve done a lot of scenario planning – from the worst kind you can have, down to the most simple of things like if something happens at a bar.
“Security services from all over the world are going to the games to make sure their team is safe.
“Does that mean there won’t be an attempt? Of course not, but it does mean it may be found out before.
“We have every confidence in the French security services … I think it’s going to be a fantastic Games.”
THE BRISBANE PLAN
In addition to the athletes, coaches and support staff, an observer delegation of Australians from the Brisbane 2032 planning committee will be in Paris to watch and learn first hand.
A source, across both the security plans for Paris and the draft threat assessments for 2032, said they believe Brisbane is well ahead of where most other host cities are at the same point.
“It is a great opportunity for the Brisbane team, because the more opportunity they have to observe, the more opportunity they have to run their games safely,” the source said.
“From what I’ve seen they (Brisbane) are already well ahead of most other host cities with their security planning, which is great.”
While the IOC, AOC, French authorities and security advisers are painting a positive picture, it is impossible to ignore the reality that the Olympics falls at a time of enormous uncertainty around the world – but especially in France.
France is currently facing one of the most palpable political climates in the world, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party under the leadership of Jordan Bardella likely set to swoop to power in the country’s elections.
The rise of RN – formerly called the National Front – has led to heightened tensions within France’s population of roughly 6 million Muslim, who feel targeted by policies including banning the wearing of the burqa.
Added to these domestic issues are the ongoing tensions between Israel and Palestine – who will both be sending athletes to the Games – and the resurgence of a branch of ISIS, known as ISIS-K.
Peta Lowe has studied violent extremism in Australia and abroad for many years, working with youths and adults at risk of being radicalised on our shores.
She believes that the biggest threat posed to the Olympic Games is from a “lone actor” type of attacker, who as Australians have seen with the Wakeley Church stabbing and this week’s University of Sydney knife attack, can be hard to identify – let alone stop.
‘LUCK’ MIGHT GET PARIS THROUGH
That threat is so real, Ms Lowe believes it will only be “luck” that sees Paris get through without an attack between July 26 and August 11.
“I think the chance of a terror attack is more certain, than probable, because we know there’s been a couple of disrupted plots already and they won’t be the only ones,” she said.
“I think it will be luck if we get through the Olympic Games without some sort of attack. Now I don’t mean necessarily a large and well orchestrated, it may be a low tech individual attack.
“These ‘single actor’ attacks are hard to detect and prevent, and for anyone individual who would want to make a statement, this is the perfect opportunity.”
The Olympic Games have not been immune to terror attacks over the years.
The most famous incident came at the 1972 Munich games, when 11 Israeli athletes and coaches were taken hostage in the athletes village by Palestinian militant group Black September.
As the hostage situation carried on for more than 20 hours, international TV cameras rolled, capturing dramatic footage of the ultimately failed negotiations and rescue attempts – until eventually news spread that all 11 athletes, one German police officer, and five of the eight kidnappers had been killed.
Michael Shoebridge has long been an expert in national security for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), and said he believes the political tensions in France, as well as their experience in thwarting previous terror attacks, actually puts them in a strong position to host a safe games.
“We know France’s recent history where there has been extremist attacks, including on things like crowded venues, and we know that the French Government has had to mobilise hundreds of thousands of police and military,” Mr Shoebridge said.
“But the (current) pressures and tensions are largely domestic, rather than international.
“So I think the idea that the Olympics is going to be a target of domestic motivated violence isn’t that likely.
“Paris is a pretty viable place to hold the Olympics from a security point of view. They’re a pretty well resourced, rehearsed and practised security regime.
“(France) are probably in a better position to deal with the situation than other countries which haven’t been through what they have.”
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