NSW Department of Education’s data model predicts how every single school will rank in 2022 in HSC

Department of Education experts have revealed the school most likely to take out the number one spot in the HSC. Search the database to see where your school is forecast to rank.

James Ruse’s 26-year winning streak of coming first in the HSC is forecast to come to an end with a girls’ school predicted to take the coveted prize of being the most intelligent school in the state.

An official NSW Department of Education analysis of Year 12 results found that the best predictor of HSC success was how well a student performed in writing in their Year 9 results.

The Daily Telegraph has obtained every NSW school’s Year 9 writing results from 2019 — and used them to predict how those same students will perform in the HSC three years later in their exams which begin on Wednesday.

That reveals the prestigious James Ruse would plunge to third place while selective schools Sydney Girls would come first and Hornsby Girls would come second.

Unexpectedly, a Wagga Wagga Catholic school Saint Mary MacKillop College would beat out the likes of the $40,000 a year Sydney Grammar to be placed equal fourth in the state.

James Ruse Agricultural High School, Carlingford is forecast to no longer be number one.

It would be the first time since 1995 that James Ruse — which is known as the jewel in the crown of NSW Education — has not topped the state in the HSC.

The prediction the school will no longer be top dog comes after their academic standing has been waning in recent years, with the proportion of students achieving top scores in the HSC falling from a high of 77 per cent in 2017 to just 70 per cent in last year’s exam.

HSC expert and Australian Tutoring Association president Mohan Dhall said James Ruse was the jewel in the crown of public education in NSW.

“In the minds of the parents and also the educators it is the premier flagship public school in the state,” he said.

While James Ruse’s star has begun to wane, he said carefully strategised subject selection for its students was keeping the school on top because more boys were likely to do high level mathematics and physics then girls. And those subjects scaled well, which could mean the school still manages to come out on top despite their writing results.

“Some of the subject choices made by girls in girls schools may not have the same ATAR boost as the subjects like high level mathematics and physics,” he said.

Sydney Girls will be number one, the forecast says. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Steven Saphore

A NSW Department of Education Centre for Education Statistics and Evaluation report which analysed HSC data found that results of Year 9 writing was the best way to say how a student would do.

“Writing ability in the years prior to the HSC is a good predictor of HSC success,” the report said.

“Internal analysis undertaken by the department shows the significance of writing ability at school to overall educational outcomes – namely that the NAPLAN writing score is a better predictor of HSC performance than the other NAPLAN competencies.”

When it comes to private schools, the analysis offers some sobering predictions. Pymble Ladies College on the upper north shore improve would go from a rank of 25 last year to a predicted place of 19th this year.

But Rose Bay’s Kambala is predicted to drop from 11th spot to 29th, Cranbrook would go from 35th to 219th while Ascham is predicted to slip from 16th in 2021 to a predicted rank of 43rd.

Originally published as NSW Department of Education’s data model predicts how every single school will rank in 2022 in HSC