Frydenberg: Australia is working it with post-pandemic jobs numbers

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will on Thursday deliver a strong mid-year report highlighting a austained economic recovery built on jobs growth and the lowest unemployment since the GFC.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is expected to tell Australians the nation is experiencing the strongest post-Covid recovery in the world when he delivers Thursday’s Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO).

Strong jobs numbers are understood to be the underpinning of the documents, which are expected to show that Treasury expects the creation of one million jobs over forward estimates, with more than 13.8 million Australians employed by June 2025.

Documents will also reveal NSW as a strong performer in the employment space.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will on Thursday deliver the MYEFO report. Picture: Getty Images

Having seen unemployment peak at 7.1 per cent – lower than other states and territories – in July, 2020, for the October quarter NSW’s jobless rate fell to 5.4 per cent.

Nationally, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5 per cent in the June quarter of next year, and to just 4.25 per cent by the year after.

Thursday’s MYEFO statement is also expected to suggest that for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis that the nation has maintained an unemployment rate below five per cent for an extended period of time.

According to previous Treasury analysis, government tax measures are expected to create 120,000 more jobs and bring unemployment down by around a full percentage point by June, 2023.

Confidence has also been boosted by recent Treasury analysis on Single Touch Payroll showing 350,000 jobs had come back from the start of September to the end of October.

Mr Frydenberg’s optimistic assessment of the state of the economy is a far cry from estimates during 2020 when Treasury suggested that the pandemic could cause a 20 per cent drop in GDP and unemployment rates north of 15 per cent.

At one time there were fears of an unemployment rate of 15 per cent. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

“While we have avoided the scarring of the labour market that was characteristic of the 1980s and 1990s recessions, there are still many more new jobs to create,” said Mr Frydenberg.

“We have the economic plan to do this with the Treasury estimating around a million new jobs to be created over the next four years.”

“We have been working to a clear fiscal strategy to drive down the unemployment rate to historically low levels as we emerge from the greatest economic shock since the Great Depression,” he said

Each year’s MYEFO statement seeks to update parliament as to the state of the economy six months on from the previous Budget.

In 2020, signs of recovery were already apparent with higher tax receipts with more people already in jobs than expected at the time, as well as higher corporate profits driven by high iron ore prices.

Originally published as Frydenberg: Australia is working it with post-pandemic jobs numbers