NT Mid-Year Report shows debt and deficit before economic rebound

The Mid-Year economic report shows more than double the deficit projected in the May budget, but it’s not all bad news. Here’s how the Territory economy is tracking.

Economic forecasts show the Territory’s deficit is more than double what was projected in the May budget, with debt also expected to increase next year.

The 2023-2024 Mid-Year Report, tabled in parliament this week, revealed the NT was expected to return to surplus sooner than expected despite this year’s net operating balance expected to show a $475m deficit in 2023-2024, up from the $200m deficit forecast six months ago.

Treasurer Eva Lawler tabled the Mid-Year Report to parliament.

A strong rebound was projected, however, with a $28m surplus for next year rising to a $301m surplus in 2026-2027 – two years ahead of the Fiscal Strategy Panel’s 2028-2029 target for returning to the black.

According to the report, net debt will sit slightly lower than expected at $9.18bn this year, peaking at $10.19bn next year and declining for the rest of the forward estimates period.

Gross State Product declined in 2022-2023 as forecasted, the government attributing the decline in most part to a reduction in net export volumes from scheduled maintenance at the Ichthys LNG plant.

GSP is projected to grow in 2023-24 by 2.9 per cent and forecast to average 2.5 per cent annually over the coming four years.

State Final Demand is also expected to continue increasing after a 1.9 per cent growth was recorded this year, driven by public and private consumption and investment. Business investment was stronger over the past year than previous, growing by 4.7 per cent.

Treasurer Eva Lawler said the Mid-Year Report confirmed the government’s 2019 plan for budget repair was working.

“Our economy is forecast to remain resilient over the forward estimates as inflationary pressures and higher interest rates continue to weigh on the global economy,” she said.

“We have set a target of growing our economy to $40 billion by 2030. We are determined to achieve this target as we want to see the NT reach its full potential and improve employment opportunities for all Territorians”.

Shadow Treasurer Bill Yan said “our economy continues to go backwards under Labor and it is clear they have no plan to address it”.

“$10.19 billion debt represents over $40,000 for every man woman and child,” he said.

“Cost of living is crippling families, their budgets are tight and yet Labor continue to waste taxpayers money on pet projects and poor priorities.”

Originally published as NT Mid-Year Report shows debt and deficit before economic rebound