BOM predicts long wait before nonsoon becomes monsoon
As Top End residents sweat it out, the Bureau of Meteorology has put a tentative date on the monsoon’s arrival - and it isn’t pretty. Read why.
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It will be more than a week at least before the Top End’s nonsoon becomes a monsoon as locals sweat it out in the tropical build-up.
After two months of broken rainfall through heightened storm activity, Top End residents are getting restless about when the ‘real rain’ will finally arrive through the monsoon.
December temperatures in Darwin were 1C ahead of the average, with the mercury averaging 33.7C for the month compared to the 32.7C long-term December mean.
The Bureau of Meteorology said that on average, the monsoon commenced at the end of December, with the 2023-24 monsoon beginning just over a week late on January 10.
The Bureau said the latest the monsoon had ever arrived in Darwin was January 23, 1973 - and the agency stopped short of forecasting whether that record was in danger - although the expectation is the clouds will burst sometime before then.
“The monsoon onset at Darwin, on average, occurs at the end of December,” a BOM spokesman said.
“As such, it is currently tracking a few days late. At this stage, there is no indication of monsoon onset occurring in the next week. The latest onset in the observational record was on the 23 January 1973.”
The Bureau has forecast that the 2024-25 cyclone season is on track to match the long-term average, with 11 tropical cyclones forming around Australia, four of which are expected to cross the Australian coast.
Three of those are expected in the Northern region, based on the tropical cyclone average.
“The likelihood of severe, strong tropical cyclones is higher than average, because of the warmer than average ocean temperatures forecast for the Australian region in the coming months,” the Bureau said.
“Tropical cyclone formation is rarely evenly spread throughout the season, with quiet periods often followed by bursts of activity.”
Undoubtedly, the single biggest weather event across the Territory in 2024 was Tropical Cyclone Megan, which dumped more than 600mm of rain over less than 48-hours over parts of Arnhem Land in March and forced the shutdown of South32’s Groote Eylandt mine, which continues today.
Both main Territory centres recorded above average rainfall in 2024.
At Darwin airport 1986mm of rainfall was recorded, compared to the yearly average of 1724.7mm and 364mm fell at Alice Springs airport, compared to the annual average of 285.4mm.
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