‘The lad vote’: Surprise polling trend shows young Aussie men moving to the right
An intriguing trend in political polling could spell electoral chaos for Anthony Albanese, with the rise of the ‘lad vote’ smashing a long-held norm.
Federal Election
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When it comes to election results, young Australians have long tended to be predominantly progressive and more likely to back Labor or the Greens over the Coalition.
But the sudden rise of a new trend dubbed ‘the lad vote’ could smash that tradition when the country heads to the polls in May.
Peter Lewis, executive director of research firm Essential Media, noticed an intriguing anomaly in recent data measuring the public mood as the election nears.
Mr Lewis then ran a statistically valid double sample to confirm the “deviation from expected norms” among men aged 35 and under.
In short, they seem to be drifting to the right at a swift pace in ways not seen before.
“We asked about the approval or disapproval of both leaders and young men were way outside the [average] in being positive towards Peter Dutton,” Mr Lewis explained.
“Way more so than older men, which are normally seen as his core constituents.”
Another significant trend was the favourable view of US President Donald Trump among young Aussie blokes, which again stood out compared to all other demographics.
“The findings are interesting in terms of attitudes to Trump and the question of whether his presidency has had a positive or negative impact on a range of measures,” Mr Lewis said.
“Most groups had a fairly negative view, while young men were much more positive about Trump’s impact on everything from climate change to the US economy, global economy, the Australian economy, and world peace.”
The positive view of Mr Trump among young men was double that of any other demographic.
‘Temu Trump’ onto something?
Satirical news site The Betoota Advocate recently bestowed a new nickname on Mr Dutton – Temu Trump.
The implication being that his embrace of culture war tactics, hard-line immigration policies and plans to establish a government efficiency portfolio make him a cheap imitation of the US president.
Mr Lewis said the former cop’s tough-talking approach appears to be cutting through.
He said the polling indicates young Aussie men are “receptive to a more ‘masculine’ style of leadership, is the term I’d use”.
While polling can “tell you the what, but not the why”, the veteran pollster and respected political communications analyst has a theory.
“I think with many young men, there’s a sense they aren’t being seen in the public discourse as much.
“There’s a receptiveness to the Trump style of leadership. It may not even be around specific policies, but more how he leads.”
“There’s a real cultural moment in the ‘manosphere’, which Trump tapped into.”
Rogan’s influence in Australia
Comedian, UFC commentator and former reality television host Joe Rogan was last year dubbed “the most popular podcaster in the world” by Bloomberg.
And countless pieces of analysis in the wake of Mr Trump’s historic electoral victory have highlighted the significant impact Rogan played in generating support for the Republican Party.
His show, The Joe Rogan Experience, released sit-down interviews with Mr Trump, Vice President JD Vance and billionaire donor turned government adviser Elon Musk in the week before polling day.
Collectively, those videos were viewed more than 80 million times on YouTube.
Conversely, television news channels – with the exception of Fox News – saw steep double-digit collapses in their ratings in the same period.
Raffaele Ciriello, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney, said podcasts like Rogan’s undoubtedly helped sway American men towards the right – and the same could be happening here.
“Podcasts appeal through their intimacy and authenticity, fostering a ‘close-knit friend group’ atmosphere,” Dr Ciriello wrote in analysis for The Conversation.
That kind of vibe especially appeals to men.
Eighty per cent of Rogan’s mammoth average audience of 65 million people is male and half of those are aged between 18 and 34.
“Rogan’s unapologetic masculinity and focus on topics such as combat sports, hunting and societal controversies position him as a counterbalance to identity politics,” Dr Ciriello said.
“His ‘living room’ style, seen during Donald Trump’s three-hour appearance, makes polarising or extremist ideas more palatable. This reflects a broader cultural shift among young men toward what they see as ‘traditional values’.”
Audience research shows Aussies are “the most avid podcast listeners” in the world, according to Statistica, with Commercial Radio and Audio’s Podcast Listeners Report revealing an 8.7 per cent lift in active consumers in the first half of 2024.
And the number of “heavy news listeners” turning to podcasts increased four per cent last year, the University of Canberra’s News and Media Research Centre found.
Its latest Digital News Report covering 2024 found the number of Generation Z and Millennial men listening to podcasts has leapt in the past two years.
Overall, men are more likely to listen to podcasts than women, by 44 per cent to 35 per cent.
Men are consuming more news podcasts, up five per cent in two years to 20 per cent, compared to a one-point increase among women to 10 per cent.
Last year, the Joe Rogan Experience topped the Australian podcast charts.
Analysis by Podcast Services Australia hints at why, with the group noting that there are “two main reasons” that people tune into a certain show.
“They’re drawn to engaging, niche topics that are not covered by traditional media and they’re looking to get a diverse range of perspectives,” it noted.
An opportunity – and a risk
Mr Lewis was keen to clarify that the polling doesn’t prove hordes of young men have turned into definitive Liberal voters.
Rather, they seem to be very receptive to right-leaning ideas and open to the idea of Mr Dutton as the country’s next prime minister.
They also appear to respond well to simplified answers to complex problems presented in a strong and tough manner.
“An election is many different battles, not just one, but this marks out uncontested territory,” Mr Lewis.
It’s certainly an opportunity for the Coalition – but also a risk, the polling indicates.
“What we’ve also seen is those who are Dutton curious are put off when he missteps on things like ending working from home, which they see as a Boomerism.”
Podcasts in campaigning mix
While Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese won’t be popping up on Rogan’s show, the pair are doing the rounds in the local podcast scene.
Mr Dutton sat down with Olympic diver turned social media sensation Sam Fricker while Mr Albanese gabbed with reality television personality Abby Chatfield.
The prime minister has also been on The Betoota Advocate podcast and the Liberal leader joined finance heavyweight Mark Bouris on his show.
Both have recorded interviews for Today star Sylvia Jeffreys’ new podcast The Pay Off.
Adding to the potential power of podcasts is the tendency for “bite-sized” teasers to go viral on social media platforms, Griffith University communications lecturer Susan Grantham noted.
“The real political currency comes from the carefully clipped, high-impact moments that make their way to TikTok and Instagram reels,” Dr Grantham wrote for The Conversation.
“Crucially, it provides further opportunities for influencers and other social media users to amplify, engage with, and reshape the content, extending its reach and impact across digital networks.
“This is important to reach the younger voters who largely make up the user base of TikTok. This election will be the first that Baby Boomer voters are outnumbered by Gen Z and Millennials, so political parties can’t afford to ignore them.”
Originally published as ‘The lad vote’: Surprise polling trend shows young Aussie men moving to the right
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