Seats where One Nation and other minor parties are heading towards victory, according to polling

Scores of seats are set to be taken by minor parties and independents this election, as voters savage Labor and the Libs. See which ones could change.

They’re the pockets of Australia where voters have baseball bats out for both major parties and according to the latest YouGov poll, minor parties are the preferred voting choice across 14 seats nationally.

In the seat of Wright, which includes parts of Logan and the Lockyer Valley in South East Queensland, Pauline Hanson is queen and after 25 years in public life, the One Nation leader continues to make inroads into regional conservative strongholds.

Wright, which is held by the LNP’s Scott Buccholz, observes polling showing that one in every five voters will cast their ballot for One Nation’s Keith Hicks, an army veteran and small-business owner.

Warringah independent MP Zali Steggall and the independent candidate for Mackellar at the 2022 federal election, Sophie Scamps.

Further north, in Gladstone, the major parties are throwing everything at a seat that has become ground zero for Labor as it attempts to rebuild its vote in regional Queensland and the LNP trying to retain the seat after the retirement of sitting MP, Ken O’Dowd.

However, this contest will be decided by minor parties where the collective vote now stands at 35 per cent, with One Nation (16 per cent) United Australia Party (8 per cent) almost certain to decide the outcome on preference flow.

Across the border in Richmond, Labor’s Justine Elliot seat takes in uber cool Byron Bay and population magnet Tweed Heads, where polling for minor parties at 35 per cent comes in a contest where all candidates have vowed to fix the region’s housing crisis.

In Victoria, Mallee, traditionally safely held by the Coalition, 38 per cent of respondents have indicated their first preference ballot will be for a minor party with One Nation and United Australia Party likely to become kingmakers in the Nationals stronghold.

Pauline Hanson speaks with Rebecca Hammond about transgender during visit to an Adelaide shopping centre. Picture: Brenton Edwards

As Victorian election watchers keep an eye on Treasurer’s Josh Frydenberg Kooyong contest against independent Dr Monique Ryan, it is the nearby bayside electorate of Macnamara where the Greens’ primary vote at 24 per cent will make for uncomfortable reading for Labor’s Josh Burns.

The Liberal Party’s Victorian conundrum has been further impacted by the retirement of health minister Greg Hunt in Flinders, which takes in the Mornington Peninsula, where strong polling by independents has contributed to a minor party first-preference vote of 37 per cent.

The minor party with strongest primary vote nationally is in the seat of Clark (formerly Denison) in Tasmania, held by independent Andrew Wilkie, where the first preference vote for minor parties is 64 per cent.

Wilkie, whose pathway into federal politics curiously came after his time as a defence analyst and a whistleblower of sorts has been a relentless anti-corruption crusader and has managed to improve his primary vote since 2010.

The Greens’ stranglehold on Melbourne and Zali Steggall’s popularity is likely to hit its zenith in Warringah, where they account for a primary vote for minor parties that now stands at 57 per cent and 56 per cent respectively.

The fracturing of the two-party stronghold has in the past decade been focused heavily on conservative parties in terms of voter dissatisfaction while the Australian Labor Party continues to deal with its own version of ‘hand to hand’ combat for the hearts and minds of progressive voters.

Australians opting for a combination of parties to form government – while remaining positive of the idea of a hung parliament – have added a new challenge on the path to the Lodge.