Scott Morrison’s re-election in doubt after damning poll results

A new poll has highlighted major dissatisfaction with Scott Morrison’s handling of the Omicron outbreak - suggesting trouble for the upcoming election.

Scott Morrison’s handling of an explosion in Omicron cases over summer is smashing his hopes of re-election with the Coalition’s primary vote diving to just 34 per cent according to a new poll.

The prospect of a March election is now close to zero as the Prime Minister pins his campaign strategy on an April budget and an election in May - after cases plateau.

The dramatic shift in the government’s fortunes is outlined in the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for Nine newspapers by research company Resolve Strategic.

It suggests the Coalition’s primary vote has slipped behind Labor, for the first time dropping from 39 to 34 per cent and putting Labor in a strong position to win the next election.

Labor has not won an outright majority in the House of Representatives at any election since 2007 and only hung on in 2010 with the support of the Greens and the independents.

Scott Morrison’s re-election hopes may have been dashed by his handling of the Omicron variant. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

Respondents to the poll also bagged the Prime Minister’s failure to provide better access to rapid antigen tests.

“We’ve been underprepared during this whole pandemic,” said one respondent. “He isn’t taking responsibility.”

“Too slow to react,” said another. “The RATs issue is just the latest one. We should be prepared for this.”

And while Labor leader Anthony Albanese fared better in the numbers, voters questioned his credentials and failure to outline more policy.

“He should be outlining his vision now in the lead-up to the election, but I hear nothing of him,” said one respondent.

“What has he made better during the last term?” asked another. “I cannot think of any positive impact.”

Unlike traditional polls such as Newspoll, the Resolve poll does not provide a two-party preferred prediction, which would tell you who voters believe will win the election.

Labor has remained in front on a two-party preferred basis in Newspoll for months, and the Liberals tumbling primary vote means that position can only have strengthened.

However, the Labor Party’s primary vote also remains dangerously low, according to the new poll despite soaring Covid infection rates.

Labor has increased its primary vote from 32 to 35 per cent since November.

Poll respondents were infuriated by Mr Morrison’s failure to provide better access to rapid antigen tests. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

And while incumbent traditionally has the edge in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Mr Morrison leads by only 38 to 31 per cent as Mr Albanese closes the gap.

“The contest has been quite close up until now, but Labor now holds a significant two-party preferred vote lead,” Resolve director Jim Reed told Nine newspapers.

“The Coalition needs to be well in front of Labor on primary vote to win because they get a minority of preferences from minor parties and independents, and they’re just not there at the moment. In fact, this is the first time they have trailed Labor on primary vote in our tracking.”

In one bright spot for the Prime Minister, many voters acknowledged their support could change, with 27 per cent describing themselves as uncommitted.

If one in three voters are not fully committed, the election will be decided by which way that group swings on polling day.

Originally published as Scott Morrison’s re-election in doubt after damning poll results