Safe LNP seat of Groom could be competitive at federal election as poll, experts suggest Toowoomba independent could draw votes

It’s one of Australia's safest and most conservative seats, but a perfect storm could see a regional Queensland electorate become marginal for the first time in decades.

The Liberal National Party is facing the strongest threat to its stranglehold on the seat of Groom in years, with an exclusive poll and key experts revealing some Toowoomba voters may be turning off incumbent Garth Hamilton.

A Chronicle survey of more than 300 enrolled Groom voters has revealed more than 40 per cent of respondents who voted for previous MP John McVeigh in 2019 are considering moving their vote elsewhere on May 21.

Independent Suzie Holt and Labor’s Gen Allpass were the main beneficiaries of the dissent, with the former arguing she was capitalising on discontent felt by some Liberal voters.

While the non-scientific online survey hardly signals an immediate upset in a seat that has been held by conservatives for more than 120 years, it does indicate the LNP has work to do in Toowoomba.

Mr Hamilton captured 36.1 per cent of first preferences based on the poll, while Ms Holt finished second with 25.5 per cent.

Ms Allpass was third with 20.6 per cent, polling similar numbers to what Labor has achieved in previous elections.

In a worrying sign for both major parties, Ms Holt has captured a significant chunk of traditional LNP voters (22.7 per cent) and historical Labor supporters (30.5 per cent) this time around.

University of Southern Queensland Honorary Professor Geoff Cockfield said while he still expected Mr Hamilton to win, the survey results indicated Groom could be less safe for the LNP than at previous elections.

“That looks like a result you would get in some of those inner-city seats, where you have a ‘teal’ independent,” he said.

“It allows major party voters to say they’re not happy and they’re going to lodge a protest vote.

“It’s a much more interesting seat than it usually is in previous elections.”

Prof Cockfield said he still expected Labor to finish second in Groom, but if Ms Holt was to move ahead of Ms Allpass it could create an interesting preferencing situation.

“We don’t know where the Labor votes will flow, but Suzie would get lots of seconds,” he said.

“Most Labor voters would be aware that there would be a good chunk of tactical voting involved.”

Queensland University of Technology Adjunct Associate Professor John Mickel also declared Groom a seat to watch on May 21, saying Ms Holt could create a tight race if she could secure enough primary votes.

“The lower primary vote predicted for the major parties has set the scene for a boil over especially when there is disillusionment with the government,” he said.

“If Suzie Holt, who is getting a lot of media attention for her community-driven campaign, picks up more than 30 per cent of the vote, she’s a real chance of taking the seat because she will likely receive preferences from Labor and the others.”