More Teals are coming: Here’s what they will demand

Three more climate-focused independents will be favourites to beat Coalition MPs. If they win, this is what they’ll push Anthony Albanese to do. SPECIAL REPORT

A growing Teals crossbench will threaten the future of Australia’s critical coal and gas sectors as they gear up to push a Labor minority government for deeper carbon cuts that would also impact manufacturing, transport and power generation.

Pollsters and betting markets alike are pointing to Labor falling short of outright victory this election, in a scenario which would force Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to negotiate with a crossbench dominated by Climate 200-backed independents.

Six of the seven sitting Teal MPs are fighting to be re-elected, with at least three new climate-focused independents on the cusp of snatching more seats away from the Coalition.

And at least two of the new Teals have campaigning on strict climate measures pulled from the Greens playbook — including an end to coal and gas exports, the abolishment of native forest logging, and a ban on new coal mines.

Those independents are Caz Heise, in the Nationals-held coastal NSW seat of Cowper, and Nicolette Boele in the Liberal-held marginal Sydney seat of Bradfield.

Caz Heise wants to “prevent new fossil fuel projects while setting a timeline for the phased closure of existing operations” and “an end to native forest logging”.

Ms Heise has firmed up as the favourite in Cowper — which stretches from Port Macquarie to Coffs Harbour — with Sportsbet paying out $1.80 for her to win down from $3 in February.

Ms Heise, a nurse by profession, did not respond to repeated requests for comment but her policy platforms state she wants to “prevent new fossil fuel projects while setting a timeline for the phased closure of existing operations” and “an end to native forest logging”

The push to ban new coal mines and winding down fossil fuel exports is also being championed by Bradfield Teal hopeful Nicolette Boele, who used to work for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

“I have a suite of policies that not only address climate change but will deliver cheaper, more reliable energy for businesses and consumers, and if elected would expect these to form part of any negotiation,” she said.

The Greens and Teals want to stop new coal and gas and ending native forest logging.

The Greens also want to stop new coal and gas and end native forest logging. Industries like coal and gas in particular remain the backbone of many Australian regional communities including in the Hunter in New South Wales and across Central and North Queensland.

Teals Monique Ryan (Kooyong, VIC) and Kate Chaney (Curtin, WA) did not respond to requests for comment.

Monique Ryan the Teals MP for the seat of Kooyong. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)

Incumbent Teals Zali Steggall, Zoe Daniel, Sophie Scamps and Allegra Spender all indicated they wanted Australia to have a carbon cut of 75 per cent or more by 2035.

Australian Conservation Foundation climate change and energy program manager Gavan McFadzean said achieving such a target would involve even stricter vehicle pollution standards and compelling hundreds of the nation’s biggest emitters to cut pollution levels by even more than the current 4.9 per cent per year.

About a quarter of the covered facilities are coal mines. There are also many large manufacturers, transport businesses and electricity generators.

Supporters of Zoe Daniel MP cheer the Teals who are advocating for stronger climate action. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)

As it stands Oxford Economics recently estimated current policy settings have Australia on track for a 54 per cent reduction by 2035.

Under the Paris agreement on climate change, countries including Australia have to nominate a 2035 goal this year. But before it is set here, the Climate Change Authority must provide a recommendation.

The Authority started consultation on a 2035 target early last year, with a draft reduction range of 65 to 75 per cent.

However, this masthead can reveal that following Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, the Climate Change Authority is likely to advise that a goal of no more than 65 per cent is achievable.

The billionaire backer of the Teals movement, Simon Holmes a Court. Photo: Martin Ollman

Since August, the Authority has been chaired by former NSW deputy Liberal leader Matt Kean. He declined to comment when contacted.

But Mr Kean is known to listen to leading expert and Grattan Institute energy program director Tony Wood.

Mr Wood told this masthead: “If I was in Matt Kean’s shoes I reckon I could see us getting 60 to 65 per cent as achievable.”

That is likely to infuriate the Teals and put Mr Albanese in a difficult position.

Alex Dyson he looked “forward to engaging to understand the (Climate Change Authority’s) final advice if elected.

Ms Daniel, the former ABC journalist who is now a Teal, told this masthead: “Australia should not base its climate ambition on who happens to be in the White House.”

Climate-focused independent candidate Alex Dyson – attempting to unseat Liberal Dan Tehan in the western Victoria seat of Wannon – said he looked “forward to engaging to understand the (Climate Change Authority’s) final advice if elected, and when it is available.”

The former Triple J radio host campaigns in orange not teal but has reportedly received nearly $500,000 from Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 political activism group, which is also backing Ms Heise and Ms Boele.