Labor minority firms as Coalition puts up fight in key battleground seats: new poll

An exclusive new poll reveals Australia is almost certainly tracking towards a minority government as Peter Dutton takes the fight to Anthony Albanese in 14 key seats now too close to call.

• Analysis: Only question Dutton can answer now

Australia is almost certainly headed for a minority government where Labor could have to negotiate with both The Greens and independents as the Coalition puts up a fight in key battleground seats, according to an analysis of the likely make-up of the next parliament.

It could be days before Australia learn the winner of next month’s election but Labor is on track to win at least 66 seats in the 150 seat lower-house while the Coalition is winning or ahead in 55, and Greens and other crossbenchers are likely to have 15.

Fourteen seats are currently too close to call.

The latest figures taken from surveys of almost 10,000 voters between February and April by Accent Research and the RedBridge Group predicts that in 95 per cent of scenarios, the range of likely outcomes for Labor stretches between a worst-case outcome of 67 seats and a best-case of 78 seats.

If Labor was to secure just 67 seats it would have to negotiate with The Greens who according to the survey will secure two to three seats and the independents which could have an many as 12 MPs in the next parliament.

The most likely outcome for Labor is 72 seats, only four seats short of a majority.

In contrast the current estimate for the Coalition parties is between 56 and 69 seats with 63 sets the most likely, which would give it no chance of forming government

The results are a massive turnaround from the last analysis by Accent-RedBridge in December which had the Coalition winning or ahead in 64 seats while Labor was only in front in 59.

Back then the most likely outcome for Labor was it ended up with 65 seats while the Coalition was most likely to get 71.

The analysis found ten seats are likely to change hands next month with Labor picking up Sturt in South Australia and Bass in Tasmania and the Coalition gaining Brisbane, Kooyong, Chisholm, and Aston in Victoria and Dobell in NSW.

But the Coalition are also likely to lose Cowper and Calare in NSW and Monash in Victoria to independents.

In good news for the conservatives however, of the 14 seats that are too close to call 10 are held by Labor – Robertson, Reid, Shortland, Bennelong, Gilmore, Paterson in NSW, Bruce, Hawke, McEwen in Victoria and Lingiari in the NT.

RedBridge director Tony Barry said they could also draw comfort from the fact that this late in the campaign the ‘soft vote’ was historically high meaning the result remained fluid.

“The challenge for the Coalition is that despite there being a mood for change, an unengaged electorate has been given no reason for change,” Mr Berry said said.

The only Liberal seats in doubt were Hughes in NSW and Casey in Victoria with the Teal seat of Goldstein in that state, the only other electorate too close to call.

Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail in Victoria to spruik Labor’s housing policies. Picture: Mark Stewart

Dr Shaun Ratcliff of Accent Research said while a minority government “still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are now the favourites, and are within grasp of a parliamentary majority.”

He said there were currently two trends at work in the election.

“Coalition strength versus Labor on the metro fringes but a bleeding of votes from Liberal and National parties to minor parties and independents, particularly in rural areas, putting seats like Cowper, Calare and Monash at risk.”

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said with only weeks remaining it was becoming clear that Labor had edged ahead in the battle to win over Millennials and Gen Z voters in key electorates.

“Whichever major party managed to secure the backing of these cohorts — whether directly or through preferences — was always going to be in the strongest position to claim victory in this election and as of this week, that is going to be Labor,” he said.

Peter Dutton has made regular visits to service stations during the election campaign. Picture: Richard Dobson

Mr Barry said the Coalition was struggling to deal with the global share market instability caused by the unpredictability of Donald Trump.

“The Coalition has forgotten that in an uncertain world there needs to be some reason to take on another risk,” he said.

The results were generated using multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) from surveys of 9,953 Australian voters conducted between 3 February and 1 April, 2025.