Hanson tipped to triumph over cannabis candidate

A pro-cannabis candidate has threatened Pauline Hanson’s grip on power as billionaire Clive Palmer fails to win in his home state.

Firebrand Queensland senator Pauline Hanson is likely to retain her spot, despite early concern she would be a shock casualty of the campaign after being locked in a battle with Legalise Cannabis Australia.

But outspoken anti-abortion LNP senator Amanda Stoker has been ousted as the Greens are on track to hold a dozen seats – up from nine – after picking up spots in South Australia, NSW and also Queensland.

It is the highest number of spots held in the senate by any minor party in Australian history, as the Coalition faces going from 36 senators to just 33 or even 31, which includes losing senator Eric Abetz to the Jacqui Lambie Network’s candidate Tammy Tyrrell in Tasmania.

Labor could keep its 26 senate count, but is an outside chance of reaching 27 or 28.

If Labor reaches 27, it will be able to form majority with the Greens, but if it doesn’t it will also need the support of someone like the progressive and ex-Wallaby David Pocock – who ousted ACT Liberal senator Zed Seselja – or Jacqui Lambie.

Pauline Hanson at a dairy farm in Singleton. Picture: Sean Bell

Ben Oquist, the executive director of progressive think tank the Australia Institute, said that there had been a “fundamental shift in the dynamics of the senate” towards climate change.

He said he believed that the Coalition’s count could fall as low as 31, which would still be the highest number in the senate.

“Overall it’s clearly a climate action senate where Labor and the Greens will have at least 38 seats and could get to 39 seats, depending on the final outcome in South Australia,” he said.

Early results showed a drop in support for Senator Hanson, however a flow in preferences from the Liberals is expected to see her re-elected.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation suffered a 2.45 per cent swing against the party in the Senate, likely in-part to the campaign of United Australia Party billionaire and fellow political maverick Clive Palmer.

However, a 4.13 per cent swing to the Greens and an almost 5 per cent boost in the Legalise Cannabis Australia party’s vote has also contributed to Senator Hanson’s woes.

Legalise Cannabis Australia has 6.72 per cent of the vote, putting its candidate Bernard Bradley in striking distance of One Nation, which sits on 7.82 per cent.

Sources last night said it was likely Senator Hanson would retain her spot with most Palmer and Liberal Democrats preferences flowing through to her, with the Legalise Cannabis Australia Party unlikely to get enough preferences from Labor and the Greens to defeat her.

Senator Hanson – who remained tight-lipped about their chances on Sunday – has been less prominent during the election than in previous years.

A Covid-19 diagnosis in the final week of the election forced her to continue the campaign from her southeast Queensland home.

Six Queensland senate seats are up for grabs.

Liberal Senators James McGrath and Matt Canavan will be re-elected but third-placed Liberal Senator Amanda Stoker will lose.

Labor’s Murray Watt will retain his spot while second-placed Senator Anthony Chisholm faces a close battle to be re-elected.

The Greens are likely to win their second Queensland Senate seat with candidate Penny Allman-Payne likely to be elevated after picking up 14.07 per cent of the vote.

Mr Palmer is likely to miss out on election to the Senate despite the United Australia Party spending more than $100 million on the campaign.

His party’s best chance for success is in Victoria where Senate candidate Ralph Babet could be elected on the back of Liberal preferences.

Clive Palmer won’t win a Queensland Senate seat for his United Australia Party. Picture Scott Powick.

Former Queensland premier and Liberal Democrats candidate Campbell Newman hasn’t revived his political career, securing just 2.40 per cent of the vote.