Federal Election 2022: The 14 key seats that will determine whether Labor will win the election race

With the election only days away, the race has narrowed to 14 key seats which will determine whether Labor will win. SEE THE DECIDERS.

The election race has narrowed to 14 key seats, with Labor limping to the end of the campaign with its nose in front as it fights for the seven seats needed to win majority.

And some surprisingly close battles in another handful of seats is putting extra pressure on the Coalition, with a number of MPs insisting that the road to victory still exists, but the path is a difficult one.

With the strong campaign run by the Climate 200-backed “teal’’ independents, plus the hard-to-read impact of One Nation and United Australia Party preference falls, a minority government cannot be ruled out.

Labor believes it is on track to pick up the Liberal seats of Chisholm in Victoria, Swan and Pearce in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, Reid in NSW and Brisbane in Queensland.

It also thinks it’s a chance in Bennelong in NSW, Higgins in Victoria, and a possible in Leichhardt in Queensland and Casey in Victoria.

Liberal candidate for Gilmore Andrew Constance pictured in Nowra. Picture: Jonathan Ng

Labor candidate for Gilmore Fiona Phillips pictured at pre-poll in Nowra. Picture: Jonathan Ng

But the Liberals seem set to take the Labor seat of Gilmore in NSW and will regain Hughes from Craig Kelly, who quit the Liberals to run for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

They are also a chance to take the marginal seat of Corangamite in Victoria, and believe they could retain Chisholm in suburban Melbourne.

They are also in with a chance in Parramatta in NSW, and say support for the Coalition has rebounded in WA. They are confident they will retain Casey.

This mixed result would put Labor in the mix for minority government, for which it needs just three seats.

The party ruled in minority under Julia Gillard’s deal with the Greens and the crossbench in 2010, and hasn’t won majority in Australia since Kevin Rudd’s victory in 2007.

Independent candidate for Kooyong Monique Ryan. Picture: Getty

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

“They know they can’t win and are trying to hold us to a minority,’’ one Labor source said.

The Coalition is under intense pressure in the inner city from the teals, who are backed by wealthy businessman Simon Holmes a Court and are a strong chance to win the seats of Goldstein in Victoria, Wentworth and North Sydney in NSW.

The Liberals believe Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will scrape home in his seat of Kooyong ahead of teal Monique Ryan, although the result could be so close it might not be known for days.

A surprise battle has emerged in the latter part of the campaign in the seat of Curtin in WA, where teal Kate Chaney has Liberal incumbent Celina Hammond locked in a serious contest.

And another late-developing fight is underway in the Victorian seat of Nicholls, where an independent, Rob Priestly, is seriously challenging the Nationals candidate Sam Birrell.
The retirement of popular local MP Damian Drum has opened up a three-cornered contest with a Liberal candidate also in the field.

Rob Priestly, independent candidate for Nicholls. Picture: Zoe Phillips

National candidate in Nicholls, Sam Birrell. Pictured Supplied.

Mr Priestly, who rejected an offer from the Nationals to stand for them, is running an excellent campaign which could see the Nationals lose their first seat since 2007.

One Liberal said if the teals did decide to enter into agreements to prop up a Labor minority, they would face the wrath of their voters at the next election.

“They need to remember these are Liberal seats and the electorate won’t like what it sees if they deliver Labor into government – look at Oakeshott and Windsor,’’ one Liberal said, referencing two balance-of-power independents who did deals with the Gillard government then retired at the end of the term.

“They’ll get three years of power then they’ll be out on their ears.’’

Liberal Bennelong candidate Simon Kennedy. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Simon Bullard

Labor candidate for the seat of Bennelong, Jerome Laxale. Picture: Toby Zerna

In Sydney, the seat of Bennelong has come into play with the retirement of well-known Liberal incumbent John Alexander, and is now a likely 50/50 chance, as is the Liberal seat of Higgins in Melbourne, where incumbent Katie Allen is under attack not from a teal, but from Labor’s candidate Michelle Ananda-Rajah.

There appeared to be some late movement too in the south western Sydney seat of Werriwa, where Liberal polling was showing candidate Sam Kayal, a local accountant, making inroads on the Labor incumbent Anne Stanley.

The seat of Lingiari in the Northern Territory is anyone’s guess, with no party able to properly poll it.

Some of the seats that were in play at the start of the campaign six weeks ago now seem unlikely to change hands, including Bass and Braddon in Tasmania (both Liberal) and Lyons (Labor), while the South Australian seat of Sturt seems likely to stay in Liberal hands.

Flynn and Longman seem to have firmed up for the LNP, as has Hasluck in WA.

Labor is more confident it will hold Hunter, Eden-Monaro and the ultra-marginal Macquarie.

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Originally published as Federal Election 2022: The 14 key seats that will determine whether Labor will win the election race