Federal election 2022: Experts share their thoughts on Senate power holders

Would-be Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s success will depend on the Senate. See the key players who will hold the balance of power.

A Labor government is the most likely federal election outcome, voting experts say, with new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese able to get his plans through the Senate with support from the Greens, Nick Xenophon, Jacqui Lambie and her little-known office manager, Tammy Tyrrell.

These poll gurus also predict Pauline Hanson will retain her upper house seat, but that the bids of billionaire Clive Palmer and former Queensland premier Campbell Newman are doomed.

They do not, however, rule out rugby great David Pocock’s chances of outflanking Liberal minister Zed Seselja and scoring one of the ACT’s two Senate spots for the teal independent movement.

Canberra-based psephologist Malcolm Mackerras – whose 2019 Senate prediction was only one seat out – told News Corp that while Labor would likely hold just 25 Senate seats after the May election, down from 26, Mr Albanese stood to benefit from the Greens growing their numbers from nine to 12.

With Greens support, the ALP would have 37 votes in the 76-seat upper house, leaving it having to twist the arms of the crossbench, which Mr Mackerras anticipated would comprise Mr Xenophon, the South Australian who served in the upper house from 2008 to 2017, along with the Tasmanian duo of Ms Lambie and Ms Tyrrell.

Apple Islanders are quickly becoming familiar with the name Tammy Tyrrell.

“You mainlanders won’t be far behind,” the lead Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Jacqui Lambie Network said.

Jacqui Lambie's office manager Tammy Tyrrell will be challenging stalwart Liberal Senator Eric Abetz for a Senate seat at this year's election. Picture: Supplied

Miss Tyrrell has worked picking potatoes and as a job coach for the disability employment service of the Salvation Army, but for the bulk of the past eight years she’s been on the staff of Senator Lambie, most recently as her office manager.

A self-described “genuine swing voter”, the 52-year-old, who has two adult children, said she had never thought of becoming a politician.

“I didn’t see a place for people like me in politics. That changed when I met Jacqui, though,” Miss Tyrrell said.

Asked to nominate a political hero other than her boss, Miss Tyrrell nominated Brian Harradine – the Tasmanian independent who held the balance of power in Canberra’s upper house in the 1990s.

“He said what he thought and he was smart about how he used his vote in the Senate,” Miss Tyrrell said. “He delivered a lot for Tasmania.”

If she succeeds in joining Ms Lambie in the Senate, Miss Tyrrell said her top priority would be a federal anti-corruption commission.

“Jacqui’s been on it for ages and she could use a second voice backing her up,” Miss Tyrrell said. “That’s what we’re going after first if we get balance of power with our two votes.”

Tammy Tyrrell of the Jacqui Lambie Network speaking to a local in Campbelltown. Picture: Rob Burnett / The Australian

Ms Lambie is among the senators not up for re-election, leaving Ms Tyrrell as lead candidate for the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN).

“Lambie, Tyrrell and Xenophon will have the balance of power,” Mr Mackerras declared.

“On anything that the Albanese government is really serious about getting passed, they’ll find ways to twist enough arms.”

Perth-based psephologist William Bowe said centrist senators were “quite likely to have the balance of power.”

Another voting expert, Tasmania-based Kevin Bonham, said the JLN appeared to be well organised and adequately funded, running a tongue-in-cheek campaign that “two heads are better than one”.

“There are scenarios where the two of them could have massive power over the Senate,” Dr Bonham told this masthead.

Mr Bowe said “Labor would rather have Tammy Tyrrell than anyone else who isn’t Labor or Green.

“They would regard that as a win.”

If the JLN wins one of the six senate seats available for Tasmania in the election it would likely come at the expense of Liberal Eric Abetz, the experts said.

None of the poll pundits thought the United Australia Party’s (UAP) Mr Palmer would secure one of Queensland’s six available senate spots.

“I don’t see why Palmer would get elected,” Dr Bonham said. “I can’t see how he beats One Nation.”

“Pauline Hanson will be re-elected,” Mr Mackerras said.

Pauline Hanson. Picture: Steve Pohlner

Mr Bowe said published polling so far was “very bad” for the UAP.

“They are not rising off the canvas no matter how much money they spend,” Mr Bowe said.

“Hanson will win.”

The psephologists predicted the Coalition would likely lose one seat in Queensland – that currently held by Amanda Stoker.

Still, Queensland was the Right’s top chance for four seats – three Coalition plus Ms Hanson.

Mr Bowe said Victoria was the Left’s “best shot” chance of winning four seats – three Labor and a Green – followed by Western Australia.

Like Mr Mackerras, Dr Bonham said the Greens’ David Shoebridge would be elected in NSW, possibly costing Labor a third seat.

Of the ACT contest, Dr Bonham said: “There are quite a few Liberal-type voters who will not switch to Labor or the Greens but who might switch to an independent with similar views to the Greens.”

David Pocock and his team on the campaign trail in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman

Mr Pocock, the former Wallabies captain, is funded by Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200 movement.

“David Pocock can get lots of everyone’s preferences,” Dr Bonham said.

Mr Mackerras said the Liberals Mr Seselja was a 70 per cent likelihood of holding on to his spot; Mr Pocock was a 20 per cent chance of winning.

“If Pocock won that seat it would make Labor’s dealings potentially rather easier.

Dr Bonham encouraged voters to think carefully about their Senate preferences and to fill out more than the minimum six boxes.

Mr Mackerras said he expected Labor to form government in its own right, with 79 seats.

However, he volunteered that he had thought Labor would win in 2019.

“I think this time the opinion polls will be right,” Mr Mackerras said, after being way off last time.

The two other psephologists also predicted Mr Albanese would be Prime Minister after the election, but said it could be as the leader of a minority Labor government.

They were less certain than Mr Mackerras that Mr Xenophon would win in SA, but still rated him a very good chance.

So, who is Tammy Tyrrell?

Apple Islanders are quickly becoming familiar with the name Tammy Tyrrell.

“You mainlanders won’t be far behind,” the lead Tasmanian Senate candidate for the Jacqui Lambie Network told this masthead.
Miss Tyrrell has worked picking potatoes and as a job coach for the disability employment service of the Salvation Army, but for the bulk of the past eight years she’s been on the staff of Senator Lambie, most recently as her office manager.

A self-described “genuine swing voter”, the 52-year-old, who has two adult children, said she had never thought of becoming a politician.

“I didn’t see a place for people like me in politics. That changed when I met Jacqui, though,” Miss Tyrrell said.

Asked to nominate a political hero other than her boss, Miss Tyrrell nominated Brian Harradine – the Tasmanian independent who held the balance of power in Canberra’s upper house in the 1990s.

“He said what he thought and he was smart about how he used his vote in the Senate,” Miss Tyrrell said. “He delivered a lot for Tasmania.”

If she succeeds in joining Ms Lambie in the Senate, Miss Tyrrell said her top priority would be a federal anti-corruption commission.

“Jacqui’s been on it for ages and she could use a second voice backing her up,” Miss Tyrrell said. “That’s what we’re going after first if we get balance of power with our two votes.”

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Originally published as Federal election 2022: Experts share their thoughts on Senate power holders