Federal Election 2019: YouGov Galaxy poll finds Scott Morrison’s chances of an election win have rebounded

Scott Morrison’s chances of an election win have rebounded, an exclusive new poll reveals, but Australians have been unimpressed with their political leaders. SEE THE FULL RESULTS

Exclusive: Scott Morrison’s chances of an election win have rebounded after two weeks on the campaign trail, an exclusive new poll reveals.

A YouGov Galaxy poll taken for News Corp shows the Coalition’s primary vote has jumped two points to 37 per cent since March.

The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote also had a one point bounce in the YouGov poll, putting them within striking distance of Labor at 48 to 52 per cent.

But the poll also reveals Australians have been overwhelmingly unimpressed with their political leaders’ performances so far.

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An exclusive YouGov poll has revealed the Coalition has gained one point on a two-party-preferred basis, putting them behind Labor by 48 to 52 per cent. Picture: AAP

Sixty per cent of voters were “not impressed” with Bill Shorten after his first two weeks on the hustings.

Just 31 per cent said they had been impressed by the Opposition leader.

Mr Morrison didn’t fare much better; 54 per cent of voters were unimpressed with his campaigning, while 38 per cent thought he had done well.

But, in positive sign for the Prime Minister, voters saw virtually no difference between Labor and the Coalition on cost of living — the number one issue which will decide the election.

Pauline Hanson’s support has plunged since One Nation officials were caught on camera seeking donations from the US gun lobby. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

The ALP remains on track to win the election however with a primary vote of 37 per cent, an increase of 2.3 per cent on its 2016 result.

Labor picked up 14 seats at the last election with a primary vote increase of just 1.35 per cent.

The Liberals could also get less of a boost from Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party’s preference flows than expected.

The YouGov poll — conducted online among a representative sample of 1012 Australian voters in both capital cities and the regions — showed Mr Palmer’s party was on track to claim just 4 per cent of the primary vote across the country.

The businessman was touted as a potential kingmaker this week following a Newspoll that showed he could claim up to 14 per cent of the vote in the marginal Queensland seat of Herbert and 8 per cent on average in other marginal seats.

With three weeks to go until election day, Clive Palmer is now more likely to pick up a Queensland Senate seat than One Nation’s Senate candidate Malcolm Roberts. Picture: Shae Beplate.

He is expected to officially confirm his preference deal with the Liberal Party in a press conference on Monday.

Pauline Hanson’s support has plunged since One Nation officials were caught on camera seeking donations from the US gun lobby and talking about relaxing Australia’s tough gun control laws.

One Nation’s primary vote has dropped from 8 per cent to just 4 per cent since the last YouGov Galaxy poll in March.

With three weeks to go until election day, Mr Palmer is now more likely to pick up a Queensland Senate seat than One Nation’s Senate candidate Malcolm Roberts thanks to the Liberals’ preference flows.

Voters ranked cost of living as the number one issue that would change their mind on a party at the election but neither the Coalition or Labor had an edge in that area.

Thirty-five per cent of voters thought Labor was the best party to bring down the cost of living while 34 per cent believed the Coalition would do a better job.

Health spending and tax were named as the next biggest issues that would change voters minds ahead of economic management, issues of trust or Labor’s policy to axe tax refunds for franking credits.

Labor’s electric vehicle target — a key attack of the Coalition’s in week one of the campaign — was a minor factor for voters. Just 13 per cent said it would change their mind.

The ALP’s pledge to restore penalty rates was also unlikely to sway voters, with 22 per cent saying it would impact their vote.

Labor’s changes to negative gearing was also a minor factor, with only 18 per cent of the 1012 respondents to the April 23 to 25 poll saying it would change their mind.

Women were more likely to vote for Labor than the Coalition, which has been criticised for its lack of female MPs.

Men were the opposite, with 41 per cent backing the Coalition compared to 36 per cent who would vote Labor.

Millennials were more likely to vote for the ALP (42 per cent) than the Coalition (23 per cent), but Baby Boomers were the reverse with 43 per cent backing the Coalition and 36 per cent voting Labor.

Almost half of voters (46 per cent) thought the Morrison government would be better at handling national security, compared to 21 per cent who rated Labor as better.

The Coalition was also ranked as the better managers of tax, infrastructure and jobs.

But Labor was viewed as the better party to manage wages and health and education funding.

Originally published as Federal Election 2019: YouGov Galaxy poll finds Scott Morrison’s chances of an election win have rebounded