Endangered species: The big-name MPs set to lose their seats
Promising newcomers, occasional floor-crossers, career politicians, moderates and hardliners are all set to be swept from power, if the latest YouGov poll proves to be accurate. See the list.
Federal Election
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A convincing Labor win on May 21 suggested by the most recent YouGov polling data will see some familiar Liberal faces departing federal politics.
The comprehensive snapshot of national sentiment suggests the Liberals are on track to lose at least 11 seats, with another six hanging in the balance.
Of the 11 electorates that are likely to change hands, three are seats where the sitting member is retiring: Boothby in SA, where Nicolle Flint is stepping down, and Pearce and Swan in WA, where Christian Porter and Steve Irons are both ending their political careers.
But if the YouGov snapshot of the national mood is replicated on election day, eight Liberal MPs will be gone from federal parliament.
They’re a diverse group: five women and three men, moderates and hardliners, with some relative newcomers and a few who have been in federal parliament for considerable lengths of time.
Of course, polling is not the same as voting – so these political obituaries could prove to be premature. But at the moment, these are the Liberals facing a sudden career change.
Josh Frydenberg
Ever since the Liberal Party of Australia was formed, it’s held the seat of Kooyong in Melbourne’s inner east.
It’s also about as far from a swinging seat as you can possibly get: Robert Menzies held it for 32 years, Andrew Peacock represented it for 28, Petro Georgiou was the MP for 16, and Josh Frydenberg has been the Member for Kooyong since 2010.
Mr Frydenberg’s margin after the 2019 election was a reasonably comfortable 6.4 per cent, but the YouGov polling has Climate-200 backed independent Dr Monique Ryan getting 53 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.
Dr Ryan has campaigned hard on two main issues: stronger action on climate and emissions, and the need for a national integrity commission.
The government is vulnerable on both fronts – on emissions, our national target for 2030 has not shifted since Tony Abbott was Prime Minister, largely because of stiff opposition from the Nationals; and on an integrity commission the Liberals have been forced to explain why they haven’t created one, after promising to do so back in 2018.
Mr Frydenberg is a leading moderate within the Liberals and enjoys a reputation as one of Australia’s most well-liked politicians.
Previously tipped as a future Liberal Prime Minister, Mr Frydenberg spent just four years on the backbench before he was made Assistant Treasurer in 2014.
Other portfolios were to come before he was made Treasurer and Deputy Leader in 2018.
It’s been suggested Mr Frydenberg could switch to Victorian state politics, although he and the Liberal Party would have to move quick: the Garden State goes to the polls on November 26.
Tim Wilson
Still one of Australia’s youngest federal parliamentarians (he’s 42), Tim Wilson has represented the seat of Goldstein for two terms, and he’s been the Assistant Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction since last October.
Openly gay, Mr Wilson made headlines and history by proposing to his now husband Ryan Bolger from the floor of parliament in 2017. (Bolger was in the public gallery at the time.)
Known for his frank and forthright views, Mr Wilson has been a vocal proponent for a law change that would enable young Australians to access their superannuation in order to help them buy their first home.
Goldstein has been retained by the Liberals since 1984, but despite Mr Wilson enjoying a 7.8 per cent margin, it’s also tipped to change hands, most likely to Climate-200 backed independent, the former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel.
The YouGov polling suggests Ms Daniel would get some 24 per cent of the primary vote, while Mr Wilson would get 40 per cent – but Ms Daniel would benefit from preferences from all other candidates.
However there is the possibility for a surprise result – Labor’s Martyn Abbott is polling just behind Ms Daniel, on 23 per cent of first preference votes.
Katie Allen
A first term parliamentarian, Dr Katie Allen came from a background in medical research before winning preselection for the safe seat of Higgins, held by the Liberals since 1949. Former Treasurer Peter Costello represented the seat for 19 years.
The YouGov polling predicts Dr Allen could receive 40 per cent of primary votes, but with both Labor and the The Greens polling strongly, on 30 per cent and 21 per cent respectively, the seat is tipped to go to Labor for the first time ever.
Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah is the Labor candidate.
Dr Allen was one of five Liberal MPs who crossed the floor in February over proposed changes to the Sex Discrimination Act which would have enabled religious schools to expel students on the basis of sexuality or gender expression.
During the campaign she also revealed she would be prepared to cross the floor again, if need be.
Along with fellow Victoria Liberal Sarah Henderson, Dr Allen spoke out last year on the treatment of women in Parliament House, following allegations that Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins had been raped by a colleague within the building.
Dr Allen suggested late-night sitting hours be reduced and alcohol consumption within the building be curtailed.
Gladys Liu
Gladys Liu’s first term in parliament as the member for Chisholm is also likely to be her last, with YouGov polling showing Labor’s Carina Garland is outpolling her on primary votes.
A regular swing seat, Chisholm is the second most marginal Liberal electorate in the country, held on a margin of just 0.5 per cent.
Famous for dressing in “Liberal blue,” Liu has long fought the perception she has links to the Chinese Community Party – connections she has repeatedly and strenuously denied.
But the perception lingers – and just this week, anti-China critics Drew Pavlou and Max Mok drew attention to it, storming a candidates’ forum in Mount Waverley and accusing Ms Liu of having binding links to Beijing.
Fiona Martin
One of two Liberal MPs with a PhD predicted to lose at this election (Katie Allen is the other), Dr Fiona Martin has represented the western Sydney seat of Reid since 2019.
While the Liberals have won Reid at every election since 2013, it’s tipped to be one of the handful of Sydney harbourside electorates (along with Bennelong and North Sydney) that the Coalition could lose this time around.
YouGov’s polling has Labor blitzing the Liberals in Reid, with Sally Sitou winning 44 per cent of first preference votes compared to Dr Martin on 37 per cent.
In the past couple of days, Dr Martin has been the subject of accusations she confused Ms Sitou with another Asian-Australian Labor member, Tu Le, during the course of a 2GB interview.
Dr Martin has denied making such a mistake, but in an electorate with a large population with Asian heritage, the perception of the mistake alone could prove costly.
Bridget Archer
The seat of Bass is one of the big swingers in Australian politics, and it has had a new MP for every term of government since 2004.
YouGov polling suggests Bass – the Liberals’ most marginal electorate, with a margin of just 0.4 per cent – could swing again, with first-term parliamentarian Bridget Archer on 39 per cent of the primary vote, but falling just short on the preference flows she will need to retain the seat.
Last November Ms Archer was the only Liberal MP to cross the floor to vote in favour of independent MP Helen Haines’ bill for a federal integrity commission – a move that some commentators saw as a shrewd political move, irrespective of the merits of the legislation itself.
During a mental health funding announcement with the Prime Minister on Thursday, Ms Archer revealed she had had her own struggles with mental health and anxiety over the years.
Lucy Wicks
The NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson is one of the all-in brawls of the federal election, with 11 candidates on the bill.
Lucy Wicks has held the seat for the Liberals since 2013, and it has a margin of 4.3 per cent, but YouGov’s polling has her on 39 per cent of primary votes – exactly the same as her Labor challenger, Dr Gordon Reid.
Preferences will ultimately decide which party wins the seat, which has replaced Eden-Monaro as the new “bellwether” seat, having been won by the party that formed government at every election since 1983.
Trevor Evans
Prior to the starter’s gun being fired on the 2022 federal election campaign, the seat of Flynn was regarded as the most likely Coalition seat to fall to Labor, but attention has now shifted to the seat of Brisbane, held by Trevor Evans since 2016, and by the LNP since 2010.
One of our younger parliamentarians (he’s 40), the former chief of staff to Peter Dutton was the first openly gay MP to be elected in Queensland.
While Mr Evans holds the seat on a margin of 4.9 per cent, YouGov’s polling suggests he’s heading for an electoral drubbing come May 21, winning just 46 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.
While Labor’s Madonna Jarrett is the challenger most likely to win, a Greens upset is also not completely out of the question: the YouGov data has Labor on 29 per cent of primary votes and the Greens just behind on 28 per cent.
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Originally published as Endangered species: The big-name MPs set to lose their seats
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