Dutton and the Libs should’ve seen this bloodbath coming

The writing was on the wall even before the polls opened, but while the election result is a catastrophe for the Coalition, it is a resounding win for democracy, writes Joe Hildebrand.

The swing is on and it is all over for Peter Dutton and the Coalition.

There is a feeling that seasoned campaigners get as an election day looms closer and closer. Not a thought or a briefing, but a feeling.

And that is simply whether or not it is on. Whether there is a seismic shift in the national mood that will sweep one party into power and the other into oblivion.

And make no mistake, it is on. One senior Labor figure told me on election eve he predicted the government to win 76 to 80 seats — and possibly even more given a shambolic last week of campaigning by the Coalition that was bizarrely dominated by arguments about Welcomes to Country.

Another close confidante of Anthony Albanese confidently predicted 79 seats before the polls had even opened — and that’s even if the government loses two.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese makes his victory speech in Sydney. Picture: Jason Edwards / NewsWire

And another veteran campaign strategist said he put his money on 77 seats for Labor — “although it’ll probably go up to 80 once I’ve had a couple of beers”.

As of late last night he must have had a couple more because even 80 seemed conservative.

This election has been nothing short of a bloodbath for the Coalition, and that is even before all the final votes have been counted.

By 8pm there was a tsunami of a swing towards Labor that pointed to picking up seats at literally the highest and lowest points of the country.

The Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt was almost instantly in play while the ALP also appears set to claim the two Tasmanian Liberal seats of Bass and Braddon.

John Howard’s former seat of Bennelong, a Labor electorate so marginal it became notionally Liberal after a redistribution, looked like a safe Labor gain last night. And the most marginal seat in the country — Gilmore on the NSW South Coast held by Labor on just 0.2 per cent — should have fallen over in a stiff breeze.

A telling sign was that Peter Dutton felt the need to visit it in the final week of the campaign. That too looks like it will stay in ALP hands.

If the Coalition couldn’t win that then it had no chance of winning government in any shape or form.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat. Picture: Dan Peled/Getty Images

Another canary in the coalmine was that earlier on election day the betting on the marginal Adelaide seat of Sturt — held by the Libs on 0.5 per cent — shifted towards even money. Labor has been chasing Sturt for decades and never won it.

Perhaps now it has landed the Great White Whale.

There were convulsions of shock on election night as the red wave exploded through suburban corridors like the elevator scene in The Shining.

And yet it should not have been surprising at all.

The Prime Minister himself was privately confident as the campaign drew to a close — and could barely contain his confidence in public — but was determined not to get ahead of himself or take anything for granted.

His mantra was, as always in such high-stakes situations: “We’ll see …”

But he fairly glowed like a radio isotope as he entered Marrickville West Public School to cast his vote with partner Jodie and son Nathan and was treated with a hero’s welcome.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese casts his ballot at Marrickville West Public School alongside his fiance Jodie Haydon, and his son, Nathan. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images

Peter Dutton, meanwhile, entered to a more subdued reception as he voted at a primary school in his Brisbane electorate of Dickson, which was largely empty in the midafternoon. There were also ominous signs from the heavens. Miserable weather always favours oppositions but it was a beautiful sunny day in Melbourne and Sydney and surrounds — the two key battlegrounds for this election — and good weather always favours incumbents because it cheers people up and makes them think life isn’t so bad.

Australian Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton stands with his sons, Tom and Harry and his wife Kirilly as he votes in his electorate in Brisbane. Picture: AP Photo/Pat Hoelscher

If that was divine intervention, it clearly came from an angry and vengeful God — perhaps displeased at the Coalition’s shameful lack of campaign readiness.

In Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson the numbers were dire early — and so it proved to be for the Opposition Leader. His downfall was something a senior Labor strategist confidently predicted on April 7 with the words: “Mark the date.”

The carnage for the Coalition is crippling.

Yet it comes with its own calm: Anthony Albanese is the first Australian Prime Minister since John Howard — the first Prime Minister this century — to win a second term in office.

That is good for democracy.

And especially because — as every true democrat knows — the people never get it wrong.

Originally published as Dutton and the Libs should’ve seen this bloodbath coming