Coalition faces crushing defeat if they hit election panic button: John Hewson

ANALYSIS: Malcolm Turnbull defeated Peter Dutton in a leadership spill but the PM appears fatally wounded. A former Liberal leader reveals what the future holds.

PUNTING Malcolm Turnbull and installing Peter Dutton would be “political suicide” for Liberal MPs, former Liberal leader John Hewson says.

The ex-politician, who served as Liberal leader for four years in the 1990s, predicts the Coalition will face a crushing defeat at the next election if they hit the panic button and topple Turnbull in coming weeks.

A second challenge is on the cards after Turnbull narrowly defeated Dutton 48 votes to 35 in a leadership spill at Parliament House this morning.

And history shows if the PM faces another challenge, he’s unlikely to survive as leader.

“The talk out of Canberra is that this is a trial run. They (Dutton’s camp) will try again in September,” Dr Hewson told News Corp today.

He said the Australian public had had enough of politicians trying to boost their own interests, rather than working to solve real world problems.

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Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra today. Picture: AAP

“I think it’s political suicide. I think the electorate has had enough,” he said.

“People want problems solved. They’re sick of governments playing point scoring and blame games.”

Dr Hewson said today’s challenge was “driven by ego and revenge” among the conservatives still angry that Turnbull rolled Tony Abbott in 2015, rather than any concerns about energy policy.

“Abbott and his mates in the media have been working to get his influence back up for a long time,” Dr Hewson said.

The challenge wasn’t necessarily launched to punt Mr Abbott back into a leadership role but to raise a conservative leader, he said.

“Dutton’s supporters would have you believe that a hard line conservative government would win,” Dr Hewson said, predicting the strategy would fail given the amount of left and centre voters in Australia.

Former minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: AAP

“It worked for Trump but it won’t work for them,” he said.

Hewson added that there wasn’t “a policy bone among them” in the hard right wing of the Coalition angling for a change of leadership.

The former leader tipped that Malcolm Turnbull’s best hope now was to make a stand on policy issues such as climate change and tax reform.

“The electorate could cut him some slack,” he said.

“There won’t be a challenge before next month. It is about giving Malcolm Turnbull more rope to hang himself,” Dr Paul Williams.

He also predicted Dutton would face pressure as well in coming weeks with questions over what he stands for and what his track record has been,

“He’s vulnerable,” he said.

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said Dutton would have a stronger chance of winning if he waited until Christmas to make a move.

He also said it was “not necessarily” political suicide to topple Turnbull.

“You’d expect any new incumbent to have a sugar hit,” Dr Williams said.

“He needs to call an election in his honeymoon period.”

Dr Williams said Dutton, a strong conservative, would be well-received in Queensland but “won’t go down well south of the border”.

By waiting until Christmas, Dr Williams said Dutton could build relationships with backbenchers and wait for the next Newspoll to damage Turnbull.

He predicted it would be a “wipe-out”.

“He’ll get more grist for his mill,” Williams said.

“There won’t be a challenge before next month. It is about giving Malcolm Turnbull more rope to hang himself,” he predicted.

Former Liberal leader John Hewson. Picture: AAP.

Both Dr Williams and Australian National University political expert Jill Sheppard said the leadership challenge had shades of the Paul Keating bid to win the Labor leadership from Bob Hawke in 1991.

His first attempt failed in the winter period, 66 votes to 44. But Keating succeed with a second challenge in December, winning the leadership 56 votes to 51.

“Dutton seems to be taking a leaf from the Keating playbook, in that he intends to sit on the backbench and rally support from there,” Dr Sheppard told News Corp.

She said Dutton could struggle despite the momentum against Turnbull.

“By taking a martyr’s position, he gives up a portfolio that has allowed him prove his conservative credentials. Dutton will have to prove himself as more than just a conservative warrior,” Dr Sheppard said.

Malcolm Turnbull with Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop at Parliament House in Canberra following the leadership vote on August 21. Picture: Kym Smith

Ultimately, she tipped Labor leader Bill Shorten would win the next election if the Liberal Party lost its nerve and punted Turnbull.

“Both major parties have long stopped caring whether their leaders are particularly popular, and we see the results of that in the rise in minor party voting.

“A Dutton versus Shorten election would probably hit record lows in terms of leadership popularity, with Shorten probably coming through as the least worst Prime Minister.”

Dutton’s supporters will be emboldened by today’s result today despite the dire predictions.

History proves leaders are likely to lose if challenged a second time.

Julia Gillard survived an initial leadership spill in March 2013, and was re-elected as leader unopposed. But by June, she had lost the support of the majority of her party and lost a second ballot to Kevin Rudd 57 votes to 45.

Similarly, Malcolm Turnbull was expected to challenge Tony Abbott for the Liberal Party leadership in February 2015, but was unable to after a spill motion was defeated.

Turnbull’s leadership ambitions were realised in September that year, when he defeated Mr Abbott in a 54 to 44 party room vote.