James Morrow analysis: PM draws us closer to China, leaves democracies like Taiwan hanging

When it comes to Ukraine, Labor is all in favour of defending democracy. But when Taiwan is under threat, the story changes quickly, writes James Morrow.

At some point Anthony Albanese has to make a call.

Does Australia support democracies when they are set upon by their more powerful neighbours (Ukraine)?

Or, do we say we support democracies in principle but raise the bat in the event it all gets too hard or might mess with our trade (if China ever carries out its threatened takeover of Taiwan)?

Consider this.

When the prime minister speaks about a country like Ukraine, he is very clear about the values that are at stake.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during a press conference following a visit to Shanghai, China on Sunday. Picture: AAP

“Australia stands with Ukraine,” Albanese said in Rome last May.

“We … spoke about the common values that we have in defence and security, standing up for Ukraine and its national sovereignty.”

Yet, when it comes to Taiwan – another democracy with a menacing neighbour – the tone changes.

Under pressure to declare whether Australia would jump in to the fray to help defend Taiwan, the prime minister has been diplomatically correct and cautious when asked about the issue in China, reciting carefully memorized phrases.

“We support the status quo.”

“We don’t support any unilateral action.”

Normally, these phrases would be taken as just diplomatic niceties, with the understanding that yeah, more than likely, we’d get involved on the side of freedom.

But now it’s not so clear. Albanese has made it clear that trade and jobs, jobs and trade are his priorities when it comes to China, and all that stuff about human rights and bully-boy diplomacy is just a distraction.

Where would Albanese stand on a Taiwan-China conflict? Only he knows.

Thus the prime minister has painted himself into a corner as he has sought to score points at home with his Labor base by distancing himself from the Trump administration on the one hand while drawing ever closer to China in the hopes of more trade on the other.

And now the question is being asked in Washington, with the survival of the AUKUS arrangement and the strength of the American alliance now hanging in the balance.

Just look at a map: There is no way in which a CCP takeover over Taiwan would be good for Australia.

But now, not so much.

Thanks to Albanese’s repeated criticisms of the Trump administration in Washington, coupled with a refusal to increase Australian defence spending or say anything more than the most cursory bad word about China’s aggressive behaviour at sea, the question is now being asked in Washington.

Taiwanese democracy in action. Picture: AFP

Would we or wouldn’t we help? Not that we have as much choice as Albanese suggests, unless he is willing to cut off American access to military and intelligence facilities hosted on our shores.

Whatever criticisms one might have of Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy, it should be clear Australia’s interests lie with the robustly democratic and powerful US holdings sway in the Pacific – not the totalitarian bullies of the Chinese Communist Party.

Yet Albanese has created such a narrow, value free vision of “Australian interests”, it is unclear he sees this fundamental truth.

Originally published as James Morrow analysis: PM draws us closer to China, leaves democracies like Taiwan hanging