Can ChatGPT pick a winner at the races? I put it to the test

While ChatGPT faltered at picking winners at the Cairns Cup, a chance encounter with a racing legend proved humans still hold the winning edge.

I went to the races on Saturday with a bold experiment in mind: could ChatGPT, the world’s most talked-about AI, pick the winner of the Cairns Cup?

I decided to put artificial intelligence to the test. Could ChatGPT pick the trifecta in Far North Queensland’s biggest race?

Spoiler alert: it failed miserably. But while my AI buddy struggled, a well-known jockey – a former Melbourne Cup winner – used his own racing instincts to nail the winner.

For someone like me, betting isn’t really my thing.

Horse racing and betting in Australia is a massive, billions of dollars every year industry. Picture: Emma Cam

The inaugural Cairns Super Carnival was a huge hit, with more than 10,500 racegoers and $24 million in turnover across the eight-day festival. Picture: Emma Cam

I don’t play the pokies, the flashing lights and sad faces aren’t my vibe, and two-up on Anzac Day?

Well the yelling, the coins flying, the sweaty palms … it feels like a mosh pit with money on the line.

The safest I feel “gambling” is buying a $1 scratchie or scoring a free small fries from a McDonald’s scratch and win promo. So knowing how to analyse a horse race to make an educated bet? Not my thang, girl. It’s actually pretty mathematical, and I still count on my fingers 90 per cent of the time.

But horse racing and betting in Australia is truly a massive – billions of dollars annually – industry.

So I thought on the one day of the year when I’m here at the racetrack, why not see if AI can outsmart decades of human experience? Typically, my race-day strategy is to pick a horse based on its name, and honestly, I haven’t done too badly in the past.

Can Chat GPT pick a winning horse to back? Picture: Emma Cam

I don’t gamble because I can’t handle losing — if an $8 coffee is burnt, I’m salty all day. So backing a horse and losing cash? Nope. Picture: Emma Cam

But this year, with AI being used for everything from writing wedding vows to diagnosing illnesses, I decided to give ChatGPT a go.

I fed it everything I had on the day: race name, location, time, conditions, and the field. Then I asked it to give me the top three horses most likely to place.

Its picks?

The favourites everyone was already tipping. Nothing groundbreaking.

And fair warning: Rogue Bear, the horse that actually won, didn’t even make the AI shortlist.

To be honest, I did think ChatGPT would give me a disclaimer about gambling or at least a “bet responsibly” warning. Nope. It spat out its tips like it had skin in the game. Slightly worrying.

I don’t gamble because I can’t handle losing – if an $8 coffee is burnt, I’m salty all day.

So backing a horse and losing cash? Nope.

Still, girl math says if I put in $10 and win $5, that’s a profit, baby. Bring me that $8 latte. But sadly… ChatGPT had other plans that day. Luckily, fate showed up – or the jockey gods, if that’s the religion you subscribe to.

Rogue Bear crossed the finish line, proving that while AI can crunch numbers, it can’t replace experience and instinct. Picture: Emma Cam

Cairns Cup winner Rogue Bear’s trainer Tom Button and jockey Justin Huxtable. Picture: Emma Cam

By pure luck, I ended up next to a jockey who had won the race that stops the nation – more than once. Nice guy. And, okay, confession time: something about being an expert on a subject matter makes a man 47 per cent more charming.

The man didn’t just answer – he went full Sherlock Holmes on that race book for 15 minutes. (For the record, the book lists everything: horse form, jockey stats, trainer details, barrier positions, track conditions.)

After deep analysis, he looked up and said: “Em, number four. Rogue Bear will win.”

I asked why, and while his explanation was layered and technical – basically another language to me – his eyes said he knew exactly what he was talking about, so I trusted him.

He clearly knew his stuff. So I put $10 on Rogue Bear and another $10 on ChatGPT’s picks.

And babes, the man did me a solid – Rogue Bear romped home and I made a decent return.

Moral of the story? ChatGPT is amazing for many things, but picking horses isn’t one of them.

Bet responsibly, and if you ever find yourself near a racing legend – buy them a drink, because their advice might just pay for it.

Originally published as Can ChatGPT pick a winner at the races? I put it to the test