Miles or Crisafulli: How the Far North will determine Queensland’s next Premier

Far North voters will be kingmakers in Queensland’s upcoming state election with the four hotly-contested electorates likely to determine the fate of the state, a political analyst says.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli and Premier Steven Miles will be counting on Far North Queenslanders to vote for them if they’re to have any chance of winning next month’s state election.

Far North voters will be kingmakers in Queensland’s upcoming state election with four hotly-contested electorates likely to determine the fate of the state and whether the LNP can finally topple Labor after 10 years in power, a political analyst says.

The ALP has enjoyed a stronghold over the region with long-term MPs Craig Crawford, Cynthia Lui and Tourism Minister Michael Healy helping ensure the party holds a 16-seat edge over the Coalition.

Member for Cairns Michael Healy, Member for Cook Cynthia Lui and Member for Barron River Craig Crawford will face stiff opposition from the LNP, minor party candidates and independents at the ballot box next month. Picture: Brendan Radke

But with three of the ALP’s 15 most marginal seats – based on 2020’s results – all in the region and Mulgrave now an open race following Speaker Curtis Pitt’s decision to bow out, the LNP is bullish about its chances of turning the top of the state blue in 37 days’ time.

In order to win, the Coaltion must give Far North voters strong reasons to tick their boxes on October 26, instead of voting for smaller minor parties, QUT’s visiting politics scholar, Dr Mary Crawford said.

“It’s far less binary than in the past,” Dr Crawford said.

“Initially, I think there was an assumption that everyone was running for the LNP based on early polling.

“That doesn’t seem to be the case now. Whether that means they move to the Coalition, One Nation or Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) is the variable and whether those local (minor party) candidates are strong and credible.”

KAP Leader and Member for Traeger, Robbie Katter has helped ensure electorates such as Hill and Hinchinbrook are now relatively safe seats for the minor party, Dr Crawford says. Picture: Nigel Hallett

With several southeast Queensland electorates likely to stay red, or even turn to the Greens this election, Mr Crisafulli’s attention is focused on the north where the Coalition is confident it can take seats away from the ALP.

“Labor is going to lose some seats,” Dr Crawford said.

“It’s just a matter of where they lose them, to whom, and how many now.”

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli must do a better job of emphasising how the LNP differs from the ALP, or risk losing next month’s election, Dr Crawford says. Picture: Brendan Radke

The LNP could no longer take the conservative vote for granted, Dr Crawford said, referencing the seven ‘Teals’ who swept into power at the 2022 Federal election as evidence of increasing fragmentation among voters.

“They (voters) may take the minor party option because they’re angry with the status quo and that’s where the danger is for the LNP,” she said.

“They need to convince people that they can achieve things. The LNP has to poll fairly well but I certainly don’t think it’s as cut-and-dry as it was six months ago.

“If the same thing happens in the south with the Greens then who knows what the result will be.

“The LNP haven’t presented many policies yet but if the minor parties start taking some seats, who knows. We could have a minority government.”

Queensland Premier Steven Miles during question time at Queensland State Parliament. Picture: NewsWire / Glenn Campbell

Last week, the Premier underscored how vital retaining Far North seats will be, foreshadowing the region will be a critical battleground for both the major parties.

“I believe we have the best plans for Far North Queensland,” Mr Miles said in Smithfield. “Rest assured I will be here a lot between now and October 26 to talk about those plans.

“But there’s nothing new in that. I’ve always spent a lot of time in Cairns.”

Mr Crisafulli rejected the Premier’s claims, arguing it was time for change at this election.

“Regional Queensland has suffered the most from the chaos and crisis of the Palaszczuk-Miles Government.

“Crime has torn regional communities apart, social housing waitlists have surged, health services overwhelmed and the cost of living has skyrocketed.

“A future Crisafulli LNP Government will govern for all Queenslanders.”

Dr Crawford also nominated the Labor-held seats of Mundingburra, Thuringowa and Townsville as vulnerable.

ON THE MARGIN

BARRON RIVER

Incumbent: Craig Crawford (ALP)

Contenders: Craig Crawford (ALP), Bree James (LNP), Peter Eicens (One Nation)

Margin in 2020: 53.06%

CAIRNS

Incumbent: Michael Healy

Contenders: Michael Healy (ALP), Yolonde Entsch (LNP), Geena Court (One Nation), Shane Cuthbert (Independent)

Margin in 2020: 55.59%

Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli with his candidate for Barron River Bree James and candidate for Cairns Yolonde Entsch on the Western Arterial Road at Caravonica last month. Picture: Brendan Radke

COOK

Incumbent: Cynthia Lui (ALP)

Contenders: Cynthia Lui (ALP), David Kempton (LNP), Duane Amos (KAP), Peter Campion (One Nation)

Margin in 2020: 56.26%

Sport and Tourism Minister Michael Healy with the ALP’s candidate for Mulgrave, Richie Bates and Premier Steven Miles. Picture: Annette Dew

TOO CLOSE TO CALL…

MULGRAVE

Incumbent: Curtis Pitt (ALP – retiring)

Contenders: Richie Bates (ALP), Terry James (LNP), Steven Lesina (KAP), Yodie Batzke (Independent), Dave Raymond (Independent), Michael McInnes (One Nation)

Margin in 2020: 62.24%

TIGHTEST SEATS IN QUEENSLAND

1. Bundaberg (Wide Bay)

2. Nicklin (Sunshine Coast)

3. Hervey Bay (Wide Bay)

4. Caloundra (Sunshine Coast)

5. Barron River (Far North)

6. Townsville (North Queensland)

7. Thuringowa (North Queensland)

8. Redlands (Brisbane)

9. Mundingburra (North Queensland)

10. Aspley (Brisbane)

11. Pumicestone (Brisbane)

12. Cairns (Far North)

13. Keppel (Central Queensland)

14. Redcliffe (Brisbane)

15. Cook (Far North)

*Bold denotes regional seat outside southeast Queensland

Originally published as Miles or Crisafulli: How the Far North will determine Queensland’s next Premier