BOM cyclone outlook 2021/22: Higher chance of cyclones, rain for Cairns
A “wetter than normal” wet season is on the cards for the Far North as the Bureau of Meteorology released its severe weather outlook for the upcoming season.
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MORE cyclones than average are forecast for the Far North’s upcoming severe weather season and increased rainfall will bring a greater risk of widespread flooding right across the sunshine state.
The Bureau of Meteorology has revealed its severe weather outlook for October to April which includes a 65 per cent chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones and lows.
About 11 cyclones usually enter Australian waters and four of those are expected in Queensland where at least one is likely to cross the coast.
BOM meteorologist Helen Kirkup said the outlook, which also outlined the risk of severe thunderstorms, heatwaves and bushfires, covered the severe weather season which runs from November until April, when the high risk weather season in Australia officially ends.
Ms Kirkup said Far North Queensland would likely “have a wetter wet season than normal.”
Senior Climatologist Greg Browning, while severe weather could occur at any time of the year, the country was now entering Australia’s peak high risk weather season.
Mr Browning said the BOM was expecting a higher chance of cyclones in Northern Queensland compared to the last two seasons.
“On average, Australia gets around 11 tropical cyclones in a season, of which four generally cross our coastline,” he said.
“With warmer than average seas around Northern Australia this year, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to be close to, or slightly above, average.”
Mr Browning said many climate drivers were indicating that it could be an active season across parts of Australia.
“Warm waters to the north of the continent, and the sea surface temperature patterns across the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans are driving our outlook towards more rainfall for eastern and Northern Australia.
“It is also likely that the first rains of the northern wet season will arrive earlier than normal for much of Northern Australia.
“And with an already wet landscape and above average rainfall likely, there is an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and Northern Australia.
“This summer, with above average rain, more cloud and higher humidity, the number of individual extreme heat days are likely to be lower than we’ve seen in recent years.
“But the potential for bushfires and severe storms remains near average.”
Ms Kirkup said Australians could not afford to be complacent this severe weather season.
She said it is vital to follow the advice of local emergency services before, during and after severe weather.
A slight chance of rain is forecast for Cairns for the next few days with maximum temperatures around 32 and 33, while rain is predicted from Friday.
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Originally published as BOM cyclone outlook 2021/22: Higher chance of cyclones, rain for Cairns
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