Coronavirus: Why deaths from COVID-19 in Italy are so high

As coronavirus spreads globally, the country with the biggest spread of cases is in Italy — and there’s a very simple reason why.

As coronavirus continues its global spread, a surprising new epicentre of the virus outbreak has emerged.

Italy now has the highest rate of cases of COVID-19 outside of China, easily outstripping Asian countries that neighbour it. The virus first emerging in the central Chinese city of Wuhan late last year.

In contrast, South Korea only has 7979 coronavirus cases compared to Italy’s more than 15,000 patients while Australia only has 156 cases.

So, why have rates of coronavirus exploded in Italy? Well, a lot of it is to do with Italy’s population.

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An elderly man wearing a protective mask pushes his cart as he arrives to shop at a supermarket in Codogno, southeast of Milan. Picture: Miguel MEDINA / AFP.

The European country has the second largest ageing population in the world behind Japan, according to the New York Times.

Roughly 23 per cent of the Italian population is over the age of 65 and the median age is 47.3 years.

By comparison the median age in Australia 37.9 years, with only 15 per cent of the population over the age of 65.

Old age, as well as pre-existing conditions such as high blood pressure and respiratory issues, increases the chances of a coronavirus case being fatal.

Italy’s Civil Protection Agency’s boss Angelo Borrelli, who is co-ordinating the country’s response to the virus, has said the majority of fatal instances of coronavirus were in the elderly.

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An elderly patient is helped by a doctor at one of the emergency structures that were set up to ease procedures at the Brescia hospital, northern Italy. Picture: AP Photo/Luca Bruno.

“Most were over 70, and some had pre-existing conditions,” he said, according to the Times.

‘‘But for the others, we still aren’t sure.”

In Lombardy — a northern province of Italy where cases have spiralled — the region’s present Attilio Fontana said “all the deaths we’ve had are either very old people or very sick people”.

According to Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan, the death rate from a disease will depend on the demographics of a population.

Professor Gordon said that as Italy has an older popular, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal”, she told Live Science.

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Japan's rate of testing for coronavirus has been much lower than other countries. Picture: Philip FONG / AFP.

WHAT ABOUT JAPAN?

While Japan has the world’s largest ageing population, its coronavirus cases are still far below those in Italy. In Japan around 26 per cent of the country is over the age of 65.

However, there has been only 1387 coronavirus cases — with 696 are from the Diamond Princess cruise ship which was quarantined there in early February — and 19 deaths.

But experts fear Japan’s real rate of coronavirus cases could be underreported with the country’s rate of testing for the virus far lower than other countries.

Masahiro Kami, executive director of Japan’s Medical Governance Research Institute, told CNN earlier this month that Japan’s reported cases were probably just the “tip of the iceberg”.

Mr Kami also said steps need to be taken to ensure coronavirus does not spread among the elderly in nursing homes and hospitals.

“If senior citizens are infected they become seriously ill and their mortality rate (with the coronavirus) is more than 10 per cent,” he said.

Hokkaido University epidemiologist Hiroshi Nishiura believes the actual number of those with coronavirus could be 10 times higher than the reported figure.

In a statement Japan’s health ministry said: “We understand there are people we have not detected.”

One expert believes the reported cases could be the “tip of the iceberg”. Picture: Carl Court/Getty Images.

ITALY IN LOCKDOWN

Italy, the centre of Europe’s coronavirus pandemic, has hit the milestone of more than 1000 deaths since it saw its first cases mid-February.

Italy’s positive cases continued their upward trend on Thursday, registering 15,113 confirmed cases and a death toll of 1016.

More than half of those who are in intensive care in Italy are located in hard-hit Lombardy province, which on Thursday reported 605 ICU patients in a region with only 610 ICU beds.

Hospitals in Lombardy are overflowing with the dead. Lombardy’s top health care official, Giulio Gallera, said at the request of the hospitals, the region had simplified the bureaucracy needed to process death certificates and bury the dead.

A Chinese medical team, surplus ventilators, protective masks and other equipment are heading to Italy in a remarkable exchange of medical know-how and material from the source of the coronavirus outbreak to its current epicentre.

The Italian Red Cross says a plane bringing a nine-person Chinese team of experts and nine cargo pallets of medical equipment would land late on Thursday in Rome.

The team includes Chinese ICU specialists, paediatricians and nurses who helped manage the crisis in China.

Italian officials say they are eager to learn from the Chinese experience, particularly clinical data and experimental drug regimens.

With 15,113 positive cases Thursday and 1016 dead, Italy’s fatality rate is running at 6.7 per cent, far higher than other countries.

– with AP

Originally published as Coronavirus: Why deaths from COVID-19 in Italy are so high